By DTN Staff

This article was originally published at 11:03 a.m. CDT on Friday, July 11. It was last updated with additional information at 11:43 a.m. CDT on Friday, July 11.

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OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA on Friday slightly lowered corn production in line with pre-report estimates and boosted old-crop corn exports to a record level.

Old-crop corn exports were increased 100 million bushels to 2.75 billion bushels. The 2025-26 production was lowered by 115 million bushels to 15.7 billion bushels.

USDA released its July Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Friday.

Friday's USDA domestic estimates were bullish for corn, slightly bearish for soybeans and neutral for wheat, said DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery. World ending stocks estimates from USDA were neutral to slightly bullish for corn, neutral to slightly bearish for soybeans and moderately bullish for wheat, he said.

Stay tuned throughout the morning and refresh this page often. We will be sending a series of updates with the important highlights from Friday's reports, including commentary from our analysts.

You can also view the full reports here:

-- Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

USDA forecasts the 2025-26 crop corn at 15.705 billion bushels (bb), down 115 million bushels (mb) based on a yield forecast of 181 bushels per acre.

Planted acres were lowered 100,000 acres to 95.2 million acres, matching the June 30 crop report. Harvested acres are projected at 86.8 million, down 600,000 acres from June.

USDA lowered beginning stocks for the new crop 25 mb to 1.34 bb.

On the demand side, the forecast for the 2025-26 corn crop projects total feed and residual use at 5.85 billion bushels, down 50 mb from last month. Ethanol use is pegged at 5.5 bb. Total domestic use is forecast at 12.735 bb, down 50 mb.

Corn exports for the new crop are projected at 2.675 bb, the same as in June.

Ending stocks for the 2025-26 crop are projected 1.66 bb, down 90 mb from June.

The farmgate price for the 2025-26 crop is projected at $4.20 a bushel, the same as last month.

With old-crop domestic corn, ending stocks for the 2024-25 crop were projected at 1.34 bb.

U.S. exports for the 2024-25 crop are pegged at 2.75 bb, up 100 mb from June. If that holds, the export numbers would be a record, beating the 2020-21 crop year.

The farmgate price for 2024-25 was lowered 5 cents to $4.30 a bushel.

Globally, USDA projects beginning stocks for the 2025-26 corn crop at 285.18 million metric tons (mmt), up slightly from June. Production is forecast at 1,263.66 mmt, down 2.32 mmt from June. Exports globally are projected at 195.81 mmt, down slightly from last month. That puts projected global ending stocks for the 2025-26 crop at 272.08 mmt, down 3.16 mmt from June.

Globally, for the 2024-25 crop, Brazil's production was increased 2 mmt to 132 mmt while exports were held pat at 43 mmt. Argentina's production was maintained at 50 mmt, and exports were 34.5 mmt.

SOYBEANS

USDA integrated its 83.4-million-acre soybean planting estimate into its supply and demand forecast, resulting in a 5-million-bushel decline in production to 4.335 mb. Yield was left unchanged at 52.5 bushels per acre.

The forecast for 2025-26 soybean ending stocks increased by 15 mb to 310 mb, within the range of pre-report expectations. Along with lower production, USDA increased crush forecast by 50 mb to 2.54 mb while cutting exports by 70 mb. Total use declined to 4.395 mb. The national average farmgate price dropped by 15 cents to $10.10 per bushel.

For the old-crop, 2024-25 season, USDA left ending stocks unchanged at 350 mb but adjusted usage. It increased exports by 15 mb to 1.865 mb and cut the residual from 45 mb to 27 mb. It increased the national average farm gate price by a nickel to $10 per bushel.

Globally, USDA sees higher ending stocks for 2025-26 to 126.07 million metric tons, up 0.7 mmt from last month. USDA sees higher beginning stocks, production and crush than last month, while forecasting a decline in exports. Production in Brazil and Argentina were left unchanged at 175 mmt and 48.5 mmt, respectively, although USDA revised exports from Argentina higher by 0.5 mmt to 5 mmt. China is forecast to import 112 mmt of soybeans, up from 108 mmt in 2024-25.

USDA left Brazil and Argentina's production for the 2024-25 season unchanged at 169 mmt and 49 mmt, respectively.

WHEAT

USDA increased its estimate of all 2025-2026 wheat production to 1.929 billion bushels, up from 1.921 bb in its June report.

USDA estimates ending stocks at 890 million bushels, down from 898 mb in June. Ending stocks for old-crop wheat increased to 851 mb from June's estimate of 841 mb.

Total use in new-crop wheat estimated at 2.009 bb is up from 1.984 bb in June, while exports increased to 850 mb from 825 mb last month.

Wheat farm gate prices were unchanged from $5.40 in June.

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.35 billion bushels, down 3% from the June 1 forecast and down less than 1% from 2024. As of July 1, the United States yield is forecast at 54.2 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushel from last month and up 2.5 bushels from last year's average yield of 51.7 bushels per acre. If realized, the United States yield would be the second highest behind 2016.

Hard red winter production, at 755 million bushels, is down 4% from last month. Soft red winter, at 337 million bushels, is down 2% from the June forecast. White winter, at 254 million bushels, is down slightly from last month. Of the white winter production, 20.1 million bushels are hard white and 234 million bushels are soft white.

Durum wheat production is forecast at 79.7 million bushels, down less than 1% from 2024. Based on July 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 38.7 bushels per harvested acre, down 0.6 bushel from 2024.

Area harvested for grain or seed is expected to total 2.06 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2025, but up 1% from 2024.

Other spring wheat production for grain is forecast at 504 million bushels, down 7% from last year. Based on July 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 51.7 bushels per harvested acre, down 0.8 bushel from 2024.

If realized, the United States yield would be the second highest behind last year. Area harvested for grain or seed is expected to total 9.75 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2025, but 6% below 2024. Of the total production, 469 million bushels are hard red spring wheat, down 7% from 2024.

Globally, USDA estimates wheat production at 808.55 million metric tons in July, a decrease from 808.59 mmt in June.

USDA estimates production in the European Union at 137.25 mmt, an increase from 136.55 mmt. Russian production was pegged at 83.5 mmt, an increase from 83 mmt last month. Chinese production is unchanged at 142 mmt.

USDA estimates wheat world ending stocks at 261.52 mmt, down from 262.76 mmt in June.

European Union ending stocks are pegged at 12.61 mmt, a decrease from 12.91 mmt last month. Russian ending stocks were unchanged from 9.39 mmt last month.

Total global wheat exports were estimated at 213.06 mmt in July, down from 214.33 mmt last month. Russian exports were bumped up from 45 mmt to 46 mmt, while China's exports were unchanged 1 mmt.

LIVESTOCK

Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets of 2025, according to DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart.

"Beef production for 2025 was decreased by 170 million pounds as packers are expected to run slower chain speeds in the second half of the year," Stewart said. "Steer prices for the remaining quarters of 2025 were unchanged from last month's projection, and the first-quarter prices for 2026 were unchanged as well. Steers are still anticipated to average $226 in the third quarter of 2025, $229 in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $227 in the first quarter of 2026. Beef imports for 2025 were increased by 190 million pounds compared to last month's report, and beef exports were increased by 28 million pounds."

Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the hog and pork markets of 2025, Stewart said.

"Pork production for 2025 was increased as processing speeds and carcass weights are expected to increase in the second half of the year. Pork production for 2025 is now anticipated to be 28,041 million pounds -- which is 45 million pounds more than last month's estimation. Hog prices were improved from last month's report, as hog prices in the third quarter of 2025 are now expected to average $76 (up $1), $65 in the fourth quarter of 2025 (up $2) and $64 (up $1) in the first quarter of 2026. Pork imports for 2025 have been increased by 10 million pounds, and pork exports increased by 25 million pounds."

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Join us for DTN's webinar at 12:30 p.m. CDT, Friday, July 11, as we discuss USDA's new estimates in light of recent market events. Questions are welcome, and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Friday's July WASDE report webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….

U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2025-26
	Jul	Avg	High	Low	Jun	2024-25
Corn	15,705	15,748	15,953	15,624	15,820	14,867
Soybeans	4,335	4,331	4,340	4,290	4,340	4,366
All Wheat	1,929	1,903	1,956	1,846	1,921	1,971
Winter	1,345	1,349	1,401	1,297	1,382	1,349
HRW	755	767	792	735	782	770
SRW	337	338	353	309	345	342
White	254	249	256	239	254	236
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2024-25
	Jul	Avg	High	Low	Jun
Corn	1,340	1,342	1,415	1,300	1,365
Soybeans	350	358	380	329	350
Wheat	851	848	851	840	841
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2025-26
	Jul	Avg	High	Low	Jun
Corn	1,660	1,733	1,856	1,630	1,750
Soybeans	310	304	377	275	295
Wheat	890	893	923	842	898
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2024-25
	Jul	Avg	High	Low	Jun
Corn	284.2	286.2	290.0	284.7	285.0
Soybeans	125.1	124.3	126.5	123.1	124.2
Wheat	263.6	264.3	265.0	264.0	264.0
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2025-26
	Jul	Avg	High	Low	Jun
Corn	272.1	276.8	280.0	275.0	275.2
Soybeans	126.1	125.5	126.0	124.3	125.3
Wheat	261.5	264.7	276.0	260.7	262.8
WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons) 2024-25
	Jul	Avg	High	Low	Jun
CORN
Argentina	50.0	50.0	50.5	49.0	50.0
Brazil	132.0	132.9	138.0	130.0	130.0
SOYBEANS
Argentina	49.9	49.3	50.0	49.0	49.0
Brazil	169.0	169.4	171.0	168.8	169.0

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