DTN Closing Grain Comments    07/03 13:52

   Corn and Soybeans Higher, Wheat Lower as Row Crops Fade From Daily Highs 
Ahead of Holiday

   Grain and oilseed markets were mixed to mostly positive on Thursday. Markets 
closed moderately below daily highs amid technical resistance ahead of the long 
weekend, with traders not quite willing to extend bullish price bets to the 
next level with the nearby weather outlook still appearing mostly favorable for 
growing crops. At this point, the rally is primarily driven by short covering 
ahead of the holiday break, with no significant changes to the underlying 
fundamental picture for row crop markets. Meanwhile, investors and traders 
spent the session awaiting the final House of Representative vote on the 2025 
Budget bill. The final vote was delayed but eventually the bill did pass just 
minutes after the close of trade for Thursday, sending the legislation to 
President Trump's desk by Independence Day.  

Rhett Montgomery
DTN Lead Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   September corn closed up 2 1/4 cents and December corn was up 3 1/2 cents. 
August soybeans closed up 2 cents and November soybeans were up 1 1/4 cents. 
September KC wheat closed down 6 1/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 7 
1/4 cents, September MIAX Minneapolis wheat was down 1 3/4 cents.

   The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.39 at 97.16. The Dow Jones Industrial Average 
is up 331.0 points at 45,107.0. August gold is down $21.10 at $3,338.60, 
September silver is up $0.29 at $37.02 and September copper is down $0.0595. 
August crude oil is down $0.44 at $67.01, August ultra-low sulfur diesel is 
down $0.0401, August RBOB gasoline is down $0.0028 and August natural gas is 
down $0.086.

FOR THE WEEK:

   September corn closed up 14 cents and December corn was up 10 cents. August 
soybeans closed up 28 1/2 cents and November soybeans were up 24 1/2 cents. 
September KC wheat closed up 2 cents, September Chicago wheat was up 23 cents 
and September Minneapolis wheat was up 19 1/4 cents.

CORN:

   September corn closed up 2 1/4 cents on Thursday to $4.20 1/4. New crop 
December futures were up 3 1/2 cents to $4.37. Corn futures finished higher but 
faded from daily highs as prices stalled near long-term downtrend resistance. 
At this point, the market will likely need a larger fundamental story to trade 
off to break significant resistance and trade to higher prices. Two-week 
weather forecasts still include plenty of chances for rain across the Corn Belt 
with moderate temperatures as well beginning next week. Moreso, Thursday 
morning's Drought Monitor showed reduction in drought across corn growing areas 
in the U.S. from 16% last week to 12% of area as of July 1. Nebraska in 
particular has seen relief, with total area in drought in the state falling 
from 97.7% in mid-May to 62% as of July 1.

   Corn export sales for the week ending June 26 were mostly steady for corn. 
Weekly old crop sales and shipments were slightly less than previous weeks, but 
shipments of 57.7 million bushels (mb) were above the weekly pace needed to hit 
the USDA estimate of 2.650 billion bushes (bb), as well as above the five-year 
average for the same week. For new crop corn, USDA reported 37 mb of sales, the 
majority made up by last week's large flash sale to Mexico. This was the 
largest weekly round of corn sales for the 2025-26 marketing year yet.

   In corn technicals, December futures faded from trendline resistance near 
$4.42, also failing to surpass the 50-day moving average which sits just below 
that mark. However, prices did manage to reclaim the 20-day moving average 
which keeps this next round of resistance within striking distance, although as 
mentioned I remain skeptical of whether a technical short covering-based rally 
can accomplish this feat without fundamental support. The 50-day moving average 
has been consistent resistance to corn prices since mid-April.

   The DTN National Corn Index finished Wednesday at $4.04. Thursday's futures 
close and implied corn basis of 14 cents under the September board would 
indicate the Index on Thursday afternoon to be near $4.06 to close the week.

SOYBEANS:

   August soybeans traded higher on Thursday to $10.55 1/2, up 2 cents. New 
crop November futures were up 1 1/4 cents to $10.49 1/4. Soybean futures 
continued to ride the wave of trade optimism stemming from Wednesday's deal 
announcement with Vietnam, but in similar fashion to corn we did see strength 
fade somewhat heading into the close with weakness spilling from the soybean 
oil market where prices stalled out on approach to 2025 highs as traders 
awaited news on the House vote for the 2025 Budget bill, which didn't come 
until after the market had closed for the day. It will be interesting to see 
how soybean oil futures react on Sunday's open given the 45Z framework included 
in the bill.  

   Thursday's USDA export data for the week ending June 26 showed weekly old 
crop sales of 17 mb, as well as shipment of 9.2 mb. The latter was below the 
weekly pace needed to hit the USDA goal although cumulative exports to date 
total 1.685 bb, 12% above the same period in 2024. For new crop soybeans, sales 
totaled 8.8 mb for the week ending June 26, the largest weekly total since the 
first week of May, although China has yet to show as a buyer. New crop soybean 
sales are 15% higher thus far in 2025 than they were at the same point in 2024.

   In soybean technicals, November soybeans traded to the highest level since 
June 23 on Thursday but faded as prices approached $10.60. The dime range from 
$10.57 to $10.67 is one of significant price resistance which has held new crop 
soybeans in check on three attempts over the past two months. To open next 
week, support at the 50-day moving average near $10.37 will be an important 
level to keep an eye on if retested.

   The DTN National Soybean Index finished Wednesday at $9.98. Thursday's 
futures close and implied soybean basis of 56 cents under the August board 
would indicate the Index on Thursday afternoon to be near $10.00.

WHEAT:

   Wheat markets were choppy and lower on Thursday with September Kansas City 
futures closing at $5.36, down 6 1/4 cents. September Chicago was also lower 
while MIAX Minneapolis futures were also lower albeit to a lesser degree. 
Winter wheat futures were unable to sustain their short rally to a third day, 
running into technical resistance and reversing drastically off the daily 
highs, with the September KC contract closing 13 1/4 cents below the high. 
Ongoing harvest pressure in the U.S. as well as for Northern Hemisphere winter 
wheat is the primary source of pressure to winter wheat crops. Meanwhile, 
spring wheat prices continue to extend their premium over winter wheat crops, 
with the spread between MIAX Minneapolis and Kansas City September boards 
closing at $1.10, the steepest spread since February 2022. Thursday's Drought 
Monitor showed an expansion of drought conditions in the Northwest U.S., 
primarily in Montana, Idaho, and Washington but beginning to sneak into Western 
North Dakota as well.

   Weekly wheat export data was mostly neutral, weekly shipments of 20.3 mb for 
the week ending June 26 were a marketing year high, while weekly sales of 21.5 
mb were the largest for the 2025-26 season in about a month. Regardless, 
commitment pace continues to decline from what was once a 26% or so lead over 
last year's pace has fallen to 4% as of June 26. Also notable for wheat exports 
was the release of Census Bureau trade data Thursday morning which rounded out 
2024-25 wheat exports at 805 mb, so 15 mb less than the USDA is using in their 
most recent WASDE balance sheet. This certainly explains the 10 mb stocks 
increase noted as well in Monday's USDA report. The other 5 mb will likely be 
explained by an increase in imports or residual usage I would imagine.

   For wheat technicals, September Kansas City futures attempted to challenge 
the 50-day moving average near $5.47 early but were swiftly rejected, sending 
prices steeply lower by the close. Volume has declined through the Wednesday 
and Thursday sessions this week, hinting that trader backing for the rally 
hasn't been at the strength necessary to break technical barriers just yet. 
Support in the upper $5.20s will be important to monitor when trade resumes 
next week.

   The DTN National HRW Index finished Wednesday at $4.90. Thursday's futures 
close and the implied basis of 53 cents under the September board for HRW would 
indicate the index for Thursday afternoon to be near $4.84.

   Rhett Montgomery can be reached at Rhett.Montgomery@dtn.com




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