DTN Closing Grain Comments    04/26 13:58

   Row Crop Prices Slightly Lower as Wheat Pushes Higher for Seventh Session

   December corn ended down 2 3/4 cents and November soybeans were down 3/4 
cent with a broad coverage of rain starting to work its way slowly eastward 
across the continental U.S. July contracts of all three U.S. wheats closed 
higher for a seventh consecutive session Friday, finishing the week with their 
biggest weekly gains in several months.

Todd Hultman
DTN Lead Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   July corn closed down 2 cents and December corn was down 2 3/4 cents. July 
soybeans closed down 2 1/2 cents and November soybeans were down 3/4 cent. July 
KC wheat closed up 13 3/4 cents, July Chicago wheat was up 1 3/4 cents and July 
Minneapolis wheat was up 5 1/4 cents.

   The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.40 at 106.0. The Dow Jones Industrial Average 
is up 204.93 points at 38,290.73. June gold is up $8.90 at $2,351.40, May 
silver is down $0.02 at $27.33 and May copper is up $0.0445. June crude oil is 
up $0.29 at $83.86, June ultra-low sulfur diesel is up $0.0018, June RBOB 
gasoline is up $0.0131 and June natural gas is down $0.060.

   For the week:

   July corn closed up 7 cents and December corn was up 7 1/4 cents. July 
soybeans closed up 11 1/2 cents and November soybeans were up 13 3/4 cents. 
July KC wheat closed up 71 1/4 cents, July Chicago wheat was up 55 1/2 cents 
and July Minneapolis wheat was up 51 cents.

CORN:

   December corn ended down 2 3/4 cents at $4.73 1/2 Friday but was up 7 1/4 
cents on the week with potential problems in South America and mostly favorable 
demand news in the U.S. Brazil's safrinha crop is now in the dry season and is 
facing above-normal temperatures for the week ahead. In Argentina, the Buenos 
Aires Grain Exchange said 20% of the corn crop has been harvested and 60% of it 
was rated fair to excellent. Wet conditions have slowed harvest progress, but 
the exchange kept it production estimate at 49.5 million metric tons (mmt) or 
1.95 bb, down from USDA's estimate of 55.0 mmt.

   On Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Department reported a second week of lower 
ethanol production. Some maintenance may be taking place, but we also notice 
corn in Iowa may be more difficult to get lately with DTN's basis map showing 
several sites in Iowa with basis above the national average and several cash 
bids above the futures board. Thursday's weekly export sales report offered 
bullish support to prices with 51.2 million bushels (mb) of old-crop sales and 
67.3 mb of corn shipped last week, giving corn exports a chance to exceed 
USDA's 2.100 bb export estimate for 2023-24.

   Friday's radar shows rain falling in the western Corn Belt with heavier 
amounts in Missouri and Illinois, moving slowly eastward through Sunday. Some 
severe weather has already taken place and more is expected toward evening. 
Northern growing areas may see sub-freezing temperatures this weekend, but the 
forecast turns warmer in May, helpful for widespread planting.

   Getting closer to a more active planting season in the U.S., the trend is 
sideways for December corn with resistance near the February high of $4.81. 
DTN's National Corn Index was priced at $4.26 Thursday evening, 15 cents below 
the May futures. The U.S. Commerce Department said the PCE inflation index 
increased from a 2.5% annual increase in February to 2.7% in March, slightly 
higher than expected, reported RTTNews.com. The U.S. Dollar Index responded 
higher to the news and is up 0.40 on Friday afternoon.

SOYBEANS:

   November soybeans ended down 3/4 cent at $11.74 3/4 Friday but were up 13 
3/4 cents on the week. The final 10% or so of Brazil's soybean harvest is being 
held up by heavy rains in southern Brazil that are expected to continue next 
week. Argentina's harvest conditions are still wet and the forecast suggests 
another one to two inches of rain in the week ahead. Late Thursday, the Buenos 
Aires Grain Exchange said 25% of soybeans are harvested, down from the 
five-year average of 48% for this time of year. The exchange kept its 
production estimate at 51.0 mmt or 1.87 bb, slightly above USDA's 50.0 mmt 
estimate.

   U.S. soybean exports remain below USDA's estimated pace so far in 2023-24 
but are close enough that USDA's 1.700 bb goal is still possible, depending on 
China's appetite in 2024. July soybeans on China's Dalian exchange were up 1.5% 
this week, ending at the U.S. equivalent of $14.30 a bushel. Improved soybean 
demand has also pulled the June FOB price of soybeans in Paranagua, Brazil to 
within 37 cents a bushel of the comparable price in New Orleans, an unusually 
narrow gap for this time of year.

   Among soy products, July soybean meal ended the week up $1.50 at $344.70 and 
July bean oil was up 0.60 cent at 45.54 cents. Both prices have been held down 
by aggressive crush totals since October. However, based on July futures 
prices, the soybean crush incentive has been stable in 2024 and ended at $1.61 
a bushel on Friday, still enticing for processors.

   So far, planting in the U.S. has been limited to central and southern 
soybean states, but northern states may have seen some activity early this 
week. Rains this weekend will limit planting and northern areas have another 
shot of cold temperatures coming this weekend, but planting will likely pick up 
next week when warmer weather returns. Nearing the end of April, the trend in 
November soybeans remains sideways with resistance near $12.00. DTN's National 
Soybean Index was priced at $11.11 Thursday evening, 52 cents below the May 
futures.

WHEAT:

   July KC Wheat closed up 13 3/4 cents at $6.54 1/4 Friday, up 71 1/4 cents on 
the week. For KC wheat, it was the largest weekly gain for a July contract 
since Russia attacked Ukraine in early 2022. Also, July Chicago wheat was up 55 
1/2 cents and July Minneapolis wheat was up 51 cents.

   As described in Friday's Todd's Take 
(https://nam11.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dtnpf.com
%2Fagriculture%2Fweb%2Fag%2Fnews%2Farticle%2F2024%2F04%2F26%2Fwheat-prices-just-
turn-bullish&data=05%7C02%7CSusan.OBryan%40dtn.com%7Cf101a4cb231b4142de1b08dc662
16451%7Cd945da26f07f451496e79b8f78a743d0%7C0%7C0%7C638497540811376618%7CUnknown%
7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D
%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=flV02URLJNLPiyzmToh4skqJ0jlHSbedqt89keAQZwk%3D&reserved=0), 
this week's higher closes in wheat started last Friday with news that 
government wheat stocks in India had fallen to 16-year lows and were enhanced 
by last weekend's frosts across northern Europe and ongoing dry weather 
concerns in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia. Having several bullish 
threats emerge almost simultaneously put the heat on specs that were holding a 
record number of short positions in KC wheat to run for cover and provided fuel 
for seven consecutive higher closes.  

   Once the short-covering ends, it is still early in the new season to know 
how world wheat production will go in 2024 and weather will remain the big 
wildcard. So far, western Europe continues to look excessively wet next week. 
The Black Sea region has chances for some rain. The Western Canadian Prairies 
are dry but have limited chances for precipitation next week. Friday's radar 
shows light precipitation in southern Alberta and southern Manitoba, but much 
more will be needed to help crops this coming season. Here in the U.S., 
Nebraska, Missouri and eastern Kansas received significant rains overnight, 2 
to 4 inches in some areas. Much of the southwestern U.S. Plains remain dry but 
has better rain chances in the six- to 10-day forecast. Nearing the final days 
of April, the trends are up for the July contracts of all three U.S. wheats. 
DTN's National HRW index closed at $5.29 Thursday, near the lowest prices in 
over three years. DTN's National HRS index closed at $6.69.

   Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com

   Follow him on social platform X @ToddHultman1




(c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.