DTN Early Word Grains         04/26 06:02

   Grain Markets Slightly Lower After Strong Rebound Thursday

   July corn is down 1/2 cent per bushel, July soybeans are down 4 1/4 cents, 
July KC wheat is up 1/4 cent, July Chicago wheat is down 1 cent and July 
Minneapolis wheat is down 1 1/2 cents. 

Kent Beadle, DTN Contributing Analyst

   EARLY MORNING GLOBEX NET CHANGES: July corn is down 1/2 cent per bushel, 
July soybeans are down 4 1/4 cents, July KC wheat is up 1/4 cent, July Chicago 
wheat is down 1 cent and July Minneapolis wheat is down 1 1/2 cents.

   CME GLOBEX RECAP: World equity markets are mixed but mostly higher as U.S. 
tech company earnings reports continue to influence the broader marketplace. 
After Thursday's rout in tech shares due to worries about AI spending at Meta, 
Friday morning has a very different tone as Alphabet and Microsoft released 
much stronger than expected earnings after the close on Thursday. The S&P 500 
did manage to close well off the session's lows, as 1st quarter GDP was much 
lower than anticipated at growth of only 1.6%. This could help the Fed move 
toward an interest rate cut that is sooner than currently expected. Friday 
morning, the PCE inflation data will be released, with year-over-year 
expectations at 2.6%, up from 2.5% in March. This is the Fed's favorite 
inflation indicator and obviously important to future interest rate policy.

   OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes Thursday showed the Dow Jones Industrial 
Average down 375.12 at 38,085.80 and the S&P 500 down 23.21 at 5,048.42, The 
10-Year Treasury yield ended at 4.71%. Early Friday, the June Dow Jones Futures 
are up 58 points. European markets are higher with the spot futures of London's 
FTSE 100 trading up 0.38%, spot futures of Germany's DAX is trading up 0.65% 
and the spot futures of France's CAC 40 Index up 0.35%. Asian markets are 
higher with Japan's Nikkei 225 Index up 0.81% and China's Shanghai Composite 
Index up 1.17%.

   The June Euro is up 0.000 at 1.075 and the June U.S. Dollar Index is up 
0.049 at 105.500.  The June 30-Year T-Bond is up 10/32nds, while June gold is 
up $18.30 at $2,360.80 and June crude oil is up $0.31 at $83.88. On China's 
Dalian Exchange, July corn was down 0.75% while July soybeans were down 0.19%, 
September soybean meal was up 0.06% and July Malaysian Palm Oil was trading up 
0.57%.

   BULL                                      BEAR
                                             Monday's crop progress report
   On Thursday, Minneapolis joined           should show planting progress
   Chicago and KC wheat in trading above     remained ahead of average with
1) the 100-day moving average, suggesting 1) growers very active ahead of the
   a bullish trend for all three wheat       big rain system that has begun to
   contracts.                                impact the Western Corn Belt
                                             Friday morning.

   There is no change to the current hot/    World vegetable oil markets remain
   dry extended forecast for the Safrinha    defensive, although palm oil
2) corn crop which has the potential to   2) futures are slightly higher Friday
   impact ear fill and ultimately yields.    morning.

   Export sales in corn rebounded sharply    The U.S. drought monitor released
   in the weekly report released Thursday    on Thursday morning showed a
   morning. Total year to date sales and     contraction of the area in
3) shipments are 82.6% of the current     3) drought. Next week's map should
   USDA forecast which is 1.3 percentage     show further improvement with the
   points higher than the 15-year average    rainfall forecast for the upcoming
   for this date.                            week.



   MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

   CORN:

   Corn is trading lower after a session on Thursday in which a lower start 
found good support and the market ultimately reversed to post a higher daily 
close. This is the fourth higher close in the last five sessions and it 
reflects the ongoing concern about the size of the Safrinha crop in Brazil as 
well as a sharp rebound in export sales seen on the weekly report Thursday 
morning. On that weekly export sales report, total sales were strong at 1.3 
million metric tons (mmt) (51.1 million bushels [mb]). Destinations included 
Mexico, South Korea, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. Shipments of 1.7 mmt 
(66.9 mb) were a marketing year high. Total year to date outstanding sales and 
shipments are 82.6% of the current USDA forecast which is 1.3 percentage points 
higher than 15-year average for this date.

   SOYBEANS:

   Soybeans are also lower after a session on Thursday where sharp early losses 
were mostly erased before posting a slightly lower daily close. Weekly export 
sales were in line with expectations but were nothing spectacular. Total sales 
of 210,000 metric tons (mt) (7.7 mb) were lower than in recent weeks while 
inspections of 417 tmt (15.3 mb) remained good for this time of the year. Total 
sales and shipments are currently 89.7% of the USDA total, which is 3.3 
percentage points below the 15-year average for this week of the year. With 
Brazilian premiums trending higher, it is still possible that U.S. exports 
become competitive earlier this year, allowing for some late season sales that 
could help achieve the current USDA estimate.

   WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are mixed, with futures prices pausing after a very strong 
five-day rally that has pushed May wheat futures levels above the 100-day 
moving average for the first time in nearly nine months. On Thursday April 16, 
the managed money position across the three wheat contracts was a net short of 
171,000 contracts. This week's net change in futures prices shows Chicago wheat 
up 52 cents, KC wheat up 50 cents, and Minneapolis wheat up 44 cents. The 
catalyst for this rally is adverse weather in the U.S. HRW belt, combined with 
weather concerns in parts of Europe and the Black Sea. Escalations in military 
activity impacting Ukrainian ports are also a factor this week. Export sales 
were released on Thursday morning and total old crop and new crop sales were 
good at 454,000 mt (16.7 mb). New crop sales remain significantly ahead of last 
year's pace. Export shipments were good at 573,000 mt (21.1 mb) with two 
cargoes destined for China.

              DTN Cash   Change From    National      Contract   Change from
Commodity     Index      Prev Day       Avg. Basis    Month      Prev Day
Corn:         $4.26      $0.04          -$0.15        May        $0.005
Soybeans:     $11.11     -$0.03         -$0.52        May        $0.002
SRW Wheat:    $5.50      $0.08          -$0.52        May        $0.001
HRW Wheat:    $5.84      $0.08          -$0.48        May        $0.005
HRS Wheat:    $6.69      $0.13          -$0.22        May        $0.013

   Kent Beadle can be reached at kentbeadle@gmail.com




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