DTN Closing Livestock Comment 05/03 15:53

   Cash Cattle Trade $1.00 to $2.00 Higher

   The cash cattle market scored again this week as sales were marked $1.00 to 
$2.00 higher than last week's weighted average.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the cattle contracts closed 
mostly higher amid stronger cash cattle sales. The lean hog complex didn't see 
much support as traders were apprehensive of overly supporting the market ahead 
of the weekend. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog 
Report, down $2.40 with a weighted average price of $89.38 on 1,990 head. July 
corn is up 1/2 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is up $7.30. The Dow Jones 
Industrial Average is up 454.71 points.

   From Friday-to-Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: June 
live cattle down $1.90, August live cattle down $2.20; May feeder cattle down 
$5.40, August feeder cattle down $5.80; June lean hogs down $3.52, July lean 
hogs down $3.10; May corn up $0.07, July corn up $0.10.

LIVE CATTLE:

   The live cattle complex closed mostly higher although the spot June contract 
did round out the day lower. But the market's biggest win of the week was the 
USDA's announcement that no traces of H5N1 were found in the ground beef 
samples they tested, and that the cash cattle market traded cattle higher again 
this week. Southern live cattle waited to trade until Friday, but the wait was 
worth the time as Southern cattle traded at mostly $184 which is $2.00 higher 
than last week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly 
$296 which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Packers 
grudgingly paid more money for the cattle they needed as they don't want to be 
in short supply heading into May. June live cattle closed $0.12 lower at 
$176.67, August live cattle closed $0.62 higher at $174.57 and October live 
cattle closed $0.67 higher at $178.05. 

   Friday's slaughter is estimated at 119,000 head -- 6,000 head more than a 
week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected 
to be around 20,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 619,000 
head -- 6,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago. 

   Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.30 ($294.20) and select down 
$0.33 ($287.65) with a movement of 97 loads (52.61 loads of choice, 16.01 loads 
of select, 8.22 loads of trim and 20.05 loads of ground beef). 

   MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Packers aren't going to willingly pay any more 
for cattle than they absolutely have to.

FEEDER CATTLE:

   The nearby feeder cattle contracts closed slightly lower but thankfully the 
deferred months still closed higher. The market isn't lacking fundamental 
support from buyers, its downfall has been the continued pressure from 
lingering bird flu news and technical hesitancy from traders. But now with the 
USDA confirming that none of the ground beef samples that they tested contained 
traces of avian influenza, the market should be able to breathe a little 
easier. I'm especially eager to see how the big summertime sales fare, which 
are scheduled for the middle of June. May feeders closed $0.30 lower at 
$243.30, August feeders are down $0.47 at $254.75 and September feeders closed 
$0.20 lower at $255.77. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that 
compared to last week and throughout the entire state feeder steers sold $3.00 
to $6.00 lower and feeder heifers under 650 pounds sold steady. Heifers over 
650 pounds sold $2.00 to $5.00 lower. Slaughter cows traded $2.00 higher and 
slaughter bulls sold $2.00 higher as well. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds 
was 83%. The CME feeder cattle index 5/2/2024: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

   Friday's trade was a flop for the lean hog complex as traders simply weren't 
willing to support the market ahead of the weekend. Traders desperately wanting 
to see promise that consumer demand would be sufficient over the summer and 
even though this afternoon's carcass price closed higher, that wasn't enough to 
soothe their concerns. Next Friday the market is scheduled to see the news 
WASDE report which could unveil some of those questions for us. June lean hogs 
closed $0.97 lower at $98.95, July lean hogs closed $0.67 lower at $102.85, and 
August lean hogs closed $0.47 lower at $101.72. Pork cutouts totaled 262.08 
loads with 234.47 loads of pork cuts and 27.62 loads of trim. Pork cutout 
values: up $0.24, $98.12. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 468,000 head -- 
29,000 head more than a week ago and 13,000 head more than a year ago. 
Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 19,000 head. The CME lean hog 
index 5/1/2024: down $0.32, $90.92. 

   MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers won't likely support Monday's cash market 
much until they gain a sense of what next week's demand is going to amount to.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached at shayle.stewart@dtn.com




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