DTN Closing Grain Comments    05/17 13:53

   Corn, Wheat Prices End Lower Friday; Oils Give Soybean Prices a Lift

   Corn and wheat prices closed lower Friday and for the week, despite ongoing 
weather concerns in several crop areas. November soybeans were up 4 1/4 cents 
Friday with a modest boost from higher closes in the prices of major plant 
oils, including a 0.75 cent gain in July soybean oil.

Todd Hultman
DTN Lead Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   July corn closed down 4 1/2 cents and December corn was down 5 1/4 cents. 
July soybeans closed up 11 3/4 cents and November soybeans were up 4 1/4 cents. 
July KC wheat closed down 11 1/2 cents, July Chicago wheat was down 12 cents 
and July Minneapolis wheat was down 9 1/4 cents.

   The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.01 at 104.47. The Dow Jones Industrial Average 
is down 1.71 points at 39,867.67. June gold is up $34.10 at $2,419.60, July 
silver is up $1.61 at $31.49 and July copper is up $0.1915. June crude oil is 
up $0.76 at $79.99, June ultra-low sulfur diesel is up $0.0406, June RBOB 
gasoline is up $0.0313 and June natural gas is up $0.125.

   For the week:

   July corn closed down 17 1/4 cents and December corn was down 15 1/2 cents. 
July soybeans closed up 9 cents and November soybeans were down 2 1/2 cents. 
July KC wheat closed down 11 1/2 cents, July Chicago wheat was down 12 1/4 
cents and July Minneapolis wheat was down 8 1/2 cents.

CORN:

   December corn ended down 5 1/4 cents at $4.76 1/2 Friday and was down 15 1/2 
cents on the week, falling back from its highest prices in four months with 
chances for limited but beneficial rains in central Brazil this weekend and 
possibly again later next week. Overall, the safrinha crop is still sitting in 
hot and dry conditions in the dry season, but occasional storms do offer crops 
a drink. In Argentina, the corn crop is 25% harvested with a mostly dry and 
cool forecast the next seven days. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said 
remaining crops are rated 54% fair to excellent and estimates corn production 
at 46.5 million metric tons (mmt) or 1.83 billion bushels (bb), much lower than 
USDA's 53.0 mmt estimate.  

   Here in the U.S., corn planting remains slower than normal, but there were 
planting opportunities in the northern Corn Belt this week where fields were 
dry enough. Early next week, more rain is expected in the upper Midwest into 
southeastern Ontario which will continue to keep progress slow. The extended 
forecast also looks wet and even though prices were lower this week, there is 
still concern U.S. corn plantings may not reach USDA's 90-million-acre 
estimate. Technically speaking, the trend remains up for December corn with 
important support near $4.75, while traders keep a close watch on crops in 
Brazil and Argentina. DTN's National Corn Index was priced at $4.33 Thursday 
evening, 23 cents below the July futures.

SOYBEANS:

   November soybeans ended up 4 1/4 cents at $12.03 1/4 Friday, ending down 2 
1/2 cents on the week and staying above $12.00. Prices survived Tuesday's 
bearish disappointment that used cooking oil was not on the White House list of 
new tariffs on China. The ability of prices to also maintain support after 
Wednesday's news of lower-than-expected soybean crush from members of the 
National Oilseeds Processors Association (NOPA) in April was also a good sign 
of support in the market.

   Flooding in southern Brazil didn't get much relief this week as rains kept 
coming and are also in next week's forecast. According to the rural extension 
in Rio Grande do Sul, the soybean harvest advanced from 78% to 85% in the 
latest week, but there is no guarantee as to how good that "harvest" is. News 
that the flooding has also hurt soybean crush operations helped U.S. soybean 
oil prices stave off some of this week's bearish pressures. July soybean oil 
was up 0.83 cent on the week, ending at 45.27 cents and was accompanied by 
higher closes Friday in canola, rapeseed and palm oil. July soybean meal was a 
little higher Friday but ended down $3.10 on the week at $368.80.

   Late Thursday, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said Argentina's soybean 
harvest is 64% finished and it also lowered the production estimate slightly, 
from 51.0 mmt to 50.5 mmt or 1.86 bb. Based on July futures prices, the value 
of crushed soybeans in the U.S. is $1.65 a bushel above the national cash 
average soybean price, still an attractive premium for processors, in spite of 
April's slow crush activity. For now, the trend in November soybeans is up with 
a new season ahead. DTN's National Soybean Index was priced at $11.46 Thursday 
evening, 63 cents below the July futures.

WHEAT:

   For a third consecutive day, July KC wheat tried to trade higher early, but 
finished lower, ending down 11 1/2 cents at $6.61 3/4 Friday. Four consecutive 
lower closes followed Monday's 26 3/4-cent gain, resulting in a loss for the 
week, which also happened to be 11 1/2 cents. The Wheat Quality Council's HRW 
Wheat Tour may have had something to do with this week's lower close, 
announcing an average yield estimate of 46.5 bushels per acre (bpa) on 
Thursday, much better than NASS's estimate of 38.0 bpa for Kansas in the May 10 
Crop Production report. Drought was evident in western Kansas and stripe rust 
was a common finding, but overall, the state's wheat crop looked its best in 
three years.

   2024 may turn out to be one of those unusual years where the SRW wheat crop 
has more problems than the HRW wheat crop. On May 10, NASS estimated SRW wheat 
crop at 344 million bushels (mb), down 23% from a year ago. USDA's crop ratings 
remain high for SRW states, but these are also the states where surplus 
moisture is relatively high and more rain is on the way the next two weeks.

   Elsewhere, spring wheat planting is slower-than-normal in western Canada 
with more rain and cold temperatures expected across the Prairies next week. 
See more at 
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2024/05/17/cold-temperatur
es-another-weather. Conditions remain excessively wet in western Europe and 
there has been some freeze damage to Russian wheat crops this month. The Black 
Sea region remains dry overall, but southern Russia is expecting rain Friday 
with more chances late next week.

   Technically speaking, ending the week with four lower closes may signal an 
end to the recent short-covering among specs in winter wheat, but so far, the 
price trends remain up for the July contracts of all three U.S. wheats with 
plenty to learn yet about crops in 2024. DTN's National HRW Index closed at 
$6.02 Thursday, up from its lowest prices in over three years. DTN's National 
HRS Index closed at $6.73.

   Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com

   Follow him on social platform X @ToddHultman1




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