DTN Early Word Grains         05/03 06:32

   Grain Markets Higher Again Friday, Primarily on U.S., Global Weather 

   July corn is up 4 1/2 cents per bushel, July soybeans are up 8 3/4 cents, 
July KC wheat is up 17 cents, July Chicago wheat is up 13 1/2 cents and July 
Minneapolis wheat is up 4 3/4 cents. 

Kent Beadle, DTN Contributing Analyst

   EARLY MORNING GLOBEX NET CHANGES: July corn is up 4 1/2 cents per bushel, 
July soybeans are up 8 3/4 cents, July KC wheat is up 17 cents, July Chicago 
wheat is up 13 1/2 cents and July Minneapolis wheat is up 4 3/4 cents.

   CME GLOBEX RECAP: World equity markets are mostly higher after Thursday's 
rally in U.S. markets that regained much of what was lost in the late session 
selloff on Wednesday. The rally on Thursday was primarily driven by the dovish 
comments from Fed Chairman Powell and his insistence that any rate increases 
are still off the table.

   Friday morning, we will get the April employment report and the trade is 
looking for 240,000 jobs. That will be the key driver of price action after its 
release.

   OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes Thursday showed the Dow Jones Industrial 
Average up 322.37 at 38,225.66 and the S&P 500 up 45.81 at 5,064.20, The 
10-Year Treasury yield ended at 4.643%. Early Friday, the June Dow Jones 
Futures are up 318 points. European markets are mixed/higher/lower with the 
spot futures of London's FTSE 100 trading up 0.49%, spot futures of Germany's 
DAX is trading up 0.49% and the spot futures of France's CAC 40 Index up 0.73%. 
Asian markets are mixed/higher/lower with Japan's Nikkei 225 Index is steady 
and the China's Shanghai Composite Index remains closed on holiday.

   The June Euro is up 0.001 at 1.076 and the June U.S. Dollar Index is down 
0.083 at 105.095. The June 30-Year T-Bond is down 3/32nds, while June gold is 
up $0.60 at $2,310.20 and June crude oil is up $0.35 at $79.30. On China's 
Dalian Exchange, July corn was down 0.04% while July soybeans were up 0.43%, 
September soybean meal was up 0.24% and July Malaysian Palm Oil was trading 
down 0.36%.

   BULL                                     BEAR
   Planting progress will remain slow in
   the Corn Belt with a system moving
   through Friday and Saturday and          Energy prices remain defensive with
   another one coming for                   U.S. crude under $80/barrel. This
1) Monday-Tuesday. Wednesday through     1) is putting pressure on margins in
   Friday remains wet for the ECB.          renewable energy production.
   Normal precipitation is forecast for
   the 8-14-day timeframe.

                                            Soybean oil remains at its lowest
   Wheat prices have responded to recent    price level since early 2021 as the
   rainfall that was forecast for the       most recent Fats and Oils report
   Black Sea area which was                 showed, the share of soybean oil
2) disappointing, and the continued dry  2) being used in renewable diesel
   conditions in the U.S. HRW areas.        production is at its lowest level
                                            since the surge in production
                                            began.

   Heavy rainfall and flooding are
   impacting harvest in Rio Grande do       Market bears will continue to point
   Sul, the last province in Brazil to      to U.S. balance sheets with more
3) harvest their soybeans. Approximately 3) than adequate ending stocks a
   25% of the crop remains to be            reason for their projection for
   harvested, and significant losses are    lower prices.
   expected.



   MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

   CORN:

   Corn is trading higher again on Friday morning as the forecasts continue to 
point to slow planting progress for the next week at a minimum. The rally 
Friday morning has pushed the July corn futures above its 100-day moving 
average for the first time since last October. The last time that we closed 
above the 100-day moving average was last June 26. With the large speculator 
still holding a very large short position, this next leg higher in futures 
prices could prompt some significant short covering from that sector of the 
trade. Growers may be less willing to sell into this rally if planting progress 
on their own farm is falling behind. The Eastern Corn Belt is further behind 
than the west, and late planting could push the pollination window into later 
July when the threat of hotter temperatures is higher. Additionally, should 
farmers be forced to plant in muddy conditions, that can have its own yield 
challenges that include emergence issues or shallow root structures.

   Thursday's export sales in corn were lower than recent weeks, but total 
shipments at 62.3% of the USDA estimate is 3.5 percentage points above the 
15-year average and total sales and shipments remain about 1 percentage point 
ahead of the 15-year average for the 34th week of the marketing year.

   SOYBEANS:

   Soybeans are higher again on Friday morning, as reports of flooding in the 
Brazilian province of Rio Grande do Sul are emerging. It appears that there 
will be significant field losses and losses due to poor quality. This situation 
just exacerbates the difference in production estimates between the USDA and 
CONAB, and it will make it more difficult for the USDA to maintain its current 
estimate of 155,000 million metric tons. 

   Thursday's export sales for soybeans were well above the previous week, and 
total shipments at 83% of the USDA estimate is right in line with the 15-year 
average, while total sales and shipments remain about 3 percentage points lower 
than the 15-year average for the 34th week of the marketing year.

   WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are higher again Friday morning, retracing most of the early 
week correction in futures prices as the rainfall forecast for the Black Sea 
region turned out to be a dud. Worries about prospects for U.S. HRW wheat and 
for areas in Europe that are too wet are also supportive. Technically, we have 
remained above the 100-day moving average for over a week, and the large 
speculator who is carrying a large short position is getting uncomfortable and 
is likely now covering that short position.

   Thursday's export sales for wheat did not show increases in net sales in the 
old crop position but did show good increases of new crop sales once again. We 
continue to see the new crop sales position running about double that of the 
size of the position at this time last year.

              DTN Cash   Change From    National      Contract   Change from
Commodity     Index      Prev Day       Avg. Basis    Month      Prev Day
Corn:         $4.37      $0.10          -$0.23        Jul        $0.010
Soybeans:     $11.38     $0.29          -$0.61        Jul        $0.004
SRW Wheat:    $5.44      $0.07          -$0.60        Jul        $0.016
HRW Wheat:    $5.86      $0.11          -$0.51        Jul        -$0.001
HRS Wheat:    $6.80      $0.08          -$0.29        Jul        $0.005

   Kent Beadle can be reached at kentbeadle@gmail.com




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