DTN Closing Livestock Comment 07/03 15:19

   Cattle Finished the Week Higher Before the Long Weekend

   Bids were offered throughout the day in both regions, but packers weren't 
overly aggressive in this week's cash market.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   The livestock complex rounded out the week, mixed with the cattle complex 
able to close slightly higher, but the hog complex was still concerned about 
demand. No new cash cattle trade had developed at the time of this writing, 
although bids were offered throughout the day. July corn is up 2 1/4 cents per 
bushel and July soybean meal is up $1.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is 
up 344.11 points and the NASDAQ is up 207.97 points.

   Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 11,400 mt for 2025 
were down 19% from the previous week and 9% from the prior 4-week average. The 
three largest buyers were South Korea (3,400 mt), Japan (2,800 mt) and Taiwan 
(1,800 mt). Pork net sales of 27,100 mt for 2025 were down 47% from the 
previous week and 14% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers 
were Mexico (15,200 mt), Japan (4,300 mt) and Colombia (1,400 mt).

   **

   The markets will be closed on Friday, July 4, so regular DTN commentary will 
resume on Monday, July 7.

   **

LIVE CATTLE:

   Although it was a quiet day throughout the marketplace, the live cattle 
complex rounded out the week on a higher note. August live cattle closed $1.60 
higher at $214.05, October live cattle closed $1.20 higher at $210.90 and 
December live cattle closed $1.12 higher at $211.25. It was relieving for 
cattlemen to see traders allow the spot August contract to remain above the 
market's 40-day moving average, as that continues to be a positive technical 
sign. Bids of $232 live and $368 dressed were offered throughout the day in 
Nebraska, and bids of $222 live were offered in Texas, but at the time of this 
writing, no new trade had developed. Unless traders feel extremely comfortable 
with the amount of cattle they have committed to them through deferred delivery 
options, they need to buy more cattle this week, or this week's volume is going 
to be extremely thin. So far this week Northern dressed cattle have traded at 
$368 to $370, which is steady to $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average 
and Southern live cattle have traded at mostly $222 to $224, which is also 
steady to $2.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Thursday's 
slaughter is estimated at 115,000 head, 10,000 head more than a week ago and 
incomparable to a year ago.

   Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $5.11 ($389.75) and select down 
$1.87 ($378.44) with a movement of 103 loads (78.69 loads of choice, 15.35 
loads of select, zero loads of trim and 8.73 loads of ground beef).

   MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Packers currently possess the upper hand in 
this market as they have supplies built up around them, but unless more trade 
happens later this evening or on July 4, this week's volume is eerily thin.

FEEDER CATTLE:

   The feeder cattle complex was also able to round out the week higher as 
traders were thankful to see the added support of the live cattle contracts 
trading higher. August feeders closed $0.47 higher at $309.50, September 
feeders closed $0.50 higher at $309.37 and October feeders closed $0.72 higher 
at $307.15. Next week, Superior Livestock Auction will be hosting their Week in 
the Rockies online video, and it will be interesting to see if prices are as 
strong as they were on the Corn Belt Classic. The CME feeder cattle index 
7/2/2025: down $2.27, $311.83.

LEAN HOGS:

   The lean hog complex rounded out the day mixed, with the market more than 
anything unsure about pork demand, which is likely why traders let the 
contracts drift lower into the long weekend. July lean hogs closed $1.67 lower 
at $107.97, August lean hogs closed $1.80 lower at $106.10 and October lean 
hogs closed $0.90 lower at $92.10. This afternoon, there wasn't one major cut 
that closed sharply lower, but with mixed price signals across the major cuts, 
a lower trend was inevitable for the afternoon's carcass price. Hog prices 
closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.85 with a 
weighted average price of $110.21 on 2,764 head. Pork cutouts totaled 371.32 
loads, with 346.92 loads of pork cuts and 24.40 loads of trim. Pork cutout 
values: down $0.54, $110.21. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 407,000 head, 
66,000 head less than a week ago and incomparable to a year ago. The CME lean 
hog index 7/1/2025: down $0.77, $110.22.

   MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Following the long weekend, packers will likely 
want to see what demand is going to amount to before they buy too aggressively 
in the cash market.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached at shayle.stewart@dtn.com




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