DTN Early Word Grains         07/03 05:47

   Grain Market Short Covering Continues Ahead of Holiday Break

   September corn is up 5 1/4 cents and August soybeans are up 6 1/4 cents. 
September KC wheat is up 2 cents, September Chicago wheat is up 3/4 cents, and 
September MIAX Minneapolis wheat is up 6 cents. 

Rhett Montgomery
DTN Lead Analyst

   EARLY MORNING GLOBEX NET CHANGES: September corn is up 5 1/4 cents and 
August soybeans are up 6 1/4 cents. September KC wheat is up 2 cents, September 
Chicago wheat is up 3/4 cents, and September MIAX Minneapolis wheat is up 6 
cents.

   CME GLOBEX RECAP: Thus far early Thursday, row crop markets are building off 
a strong Wednesday session which saw all three major markets trade to double 
digit gains. A combination of trade optimism following the announcement of a 
U.S. trade deal with Vietnam, as well as technical support drove prices higher 
and continue to do so ahead of the long weekend. For Thursday, USDA will kick 
things off at 7:30 a.m. CDT with the weekly export sales report. In macro 
markets, it will also be a busy morning with June jobs data on tap, meanwhile 
investors and traders alike will be watching closely as the 2025 budget, 
spending, and tax bill is expected to be voted on in the House early Thursday 
morning.

   OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes Wednesday showed the Dow Jones Industrial 
Average down 10.52 at 44,484.42 and the S&P 500 Index up 29.41 at 6,227.42. The 
10-Year Treasury yield ended at 4.29%. Early Thursday, September Dow Jones 
futures are up 17 points. European markets are higher with the spot futures of 
the London FTSE 100 trading up 0.26%, spot futures of Germany's DAX trading up 
0.11% and spot futures of France's CAC Index trading up 0.99%. Asian markets 
are higher with Japan's Nikkei 225 index up 0.06% and China's Shanghai 
Composite Index up 0.18%.

   The September euro is down $0.0004 at $1.1852. The September U.S. Dollar 
Index is up 0.02 at 96.45. The September 30-year T-bond is up 16/32nds, while 
August gold is up $0.10 at $3,359.80 and August crude oil is down $0.23 at 
$67.22. Malaysian palm oil futures are up 0.76%. On China's Dalian exchange, 
September corn was down 0.2%, September soybeans were up 0.7%, September 
soybean meal was up 0.4% and September soybean oil was up 0.5%. On China's 
Dalian exchange, September corn translated to $8.36. September soybeans 
translated to $13.71.

   BULL                                      BEAR
   The White House announced a trade
   agreement with Vietnam on Wednesday;      U.S. ethanol production fell for
1) Vietnam is a top 10 buyer of U.S. Ag   1) the third straight week to 1.076
   products including cotton, soybeans,      million barrels per day last week.
   and soybean meal.

                                             Argentine FOB corn offers are the
   November soybean futures broke through    least expensive in the world
2) all three major moving averages during 2) currently, while Argentine total
   Wednesday's 20-plus-cent move higher.     grain exports in June were a
                                             monthly record.

   MIAX Minneapolis September spring         U.S. Grain Belt Weather still
   wheat futures have rallied just under     looks friendly through mid-July,
3) 30 cents in the past two sessions amid 3) which should cover the beginning
   crop condition declines in the            of pollination for the corn crop.
   Northwest.



   MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN:

   Corn futures are another nickel or so higher early Thursday as traders 
continue to square positions ahead of the Holiday break, likely in a bid to 
reduce risk exposure to weather which as we all know can shift very quickly and 
despite the good start to the growing season for corn, mid-to-late July takes 
on a whole other level of importance to development. Corn futures are likely 
benefitting from a seasonal boost as well, as through the past five years or so 
prices do have the tendency to rally through early July before then returning 
to a lower drift into early fall. On Wednesday, the Energy Information 
Administration said ethanol production in the U.S. averaged 1.076 million 
barrels per day (mbpd) last week, a decrease of 5 mbpd from the prior week, but 
still stronger than comparable weeks over the past four years. To wrap up June, 
based on the weekly EIA data, I estimate total corn used for ethanol was 452 
million bushels (mb) for the month. For Thursday morning export sales, analysts 
are expecting around 25 to 30 mb of sales to be reported for the week ending 
June 26, although we are in a period where shipments tend to take precedence.

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean futures are also higher early Thursday, building off a very strong 
Wednesday session which saw each board down the curve trade to over 20 cent 
gains. The soybean complex was strong from start to finish led off by soybean 
oil gapping higher, thus far Thursday oil futures are easing slightly but up 
from overnight lows. Momentum in the market has accelerated with the 
announcement of the trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam. Vietnam is a 
top buyer of U.S. ag products, and consistently in the top 10 buyers of 
soybeans and soybean meal. For the latter, the news has that market finally 
showing some life after what was frankly a brutal June which saw front month 
meal futures lose almost $25 per ton in value over the month. Perhaps more 
importantly, the trade news gave buyers a new sense of optimism that perhaps 
similar deals will be reached ahead of the July 9 tariff cutoff. For Thursday's 
export sales report, analysts expect soybean sales of between 15 and 30 mb.

WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are higher as well across all three varieties early Thursday. 
Minneapolis spring wheat continues to lead the group higher, quickly 
approaching mid-June highs and among the highest price of 2025 thus far as 
concerns continue to mount over the hot and dry weather in Northwest growing 
regions. Thursday morning's Drought Monitor will give an update here. For 
winter wheat, Kansas City futures are approaching technical resistance again 
near the 50-day moving average at $5.47, which slowed prices on approach early 
Thursday. Harvest pressure will continue to be the largest source of pressure 
to prices, as European and Russian winter wheat crops are readying for harvest. 
Russia is off to a slow start on that front, with the International Grains 
Council reporting on Wednesday that only 1% of the crop was harvested as of the 
beginning of July. For Thursday's export sales report, analysts expect between 
7 and 20 mb of sales for the week ending June 26.

              DTN Cash   Change From    National      Contract   Change from
Commodity     Index      Prev Day       Avg. Basis    Month      Prev Day
Corn:         $4.04      $0.13          -$0.14        Sep        $0.006
Soybeans:     $9.98      $0.22          -$0.50        Nov        $0.014
SRW Wheat:    $5.09      $0.15          -$0.55        Sep        -$0.004
HRW Wheat:    $4.90      $0.11          -$0.53        Sep        -$0.002

   Rhett Montgomery can be reached at Rhett.Montgomery@dtn.com 

   Follow Rhett on X: @R_D_Montgomery 




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