DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          10/14 07:41

   Cotton Lower Monday on Chinese Inaction 

   The cotton market is already flashing triple-digit losses Monday morning, as 
China's latest stimulus announcement proved to be a dud. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is already flashing triple-digit losses Monday morning, as 
China's latest stimulus announcement proved to be a dud. In addition, the U.S. 
harvest is getting underway, with decent weather conditions.

   Last Friday, the CFTC reported virtually near inaction by the managed-money 
funds. Essentially, that group, per last Tuesday's close, bought a mere 224 
positions, keeping their overall net-short carry at 11,923 contracts.

   Tuesday afternoon at 4 p.m., USDA will update the condition and harvest 
progress of the 2024 crop. The report is delayed due to Monday's federal 
holiday. Last week saw the crop rated at 30% good to excellent versus the 
previous 31%, with harvest at 26% complete, compared to the 5-year pace of 22% 
gathered.

   Over the weekend, Chinese officials offered no new specifics regarding 
Beijing's plan to stimulate the economy. Supposedly, Saturday's news conference 
was to provide specific and substantive information, but it was lacking in 
details. 

   The 6- to 10-day forecast calls for above-normal rainfall for Texas, with 
near-normal chances for the Southeast. Temperatures are looking to be above 
normal for Texas, as well as the Delta and the Southeast. 

   For Monday, close-in chart support for December cotton stands at 70.50 cents 
and 69.40 cents, with 72.40 and 73.50 as resistance. Monday morning's estimated 
volume stands at 15,100 contracts. 

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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