DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          10/20 07:25

   Cotton Market Stalls as Traders Watch Geopolitics and Key Data

   The cotton market continues to pass the time by going nowhere. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market continues to pass the time by going nowhere. Traders are 
keeping one eye on the geopolitical happenings of the world and the other on 
specific cotton data.

   Monday afternoon, USDA released its weekly Crop Progress report. Its data 
showed 35% of the U.S. cotton crop was rated good to excellent as of Oct. 18, 
up from 34% the previous week, but below the four-year average for this date at 
40%. The average does not include last year because the data was not collected 
due to the government shutdown. The report also showed 41% of the crop had been 
harvested as of Oct. 18, up from 31% the previous week and above the four-year 
average for this date at 37%. Eighty-five percent of the crop had bolls open, 
up from 82% the previous week but below the four-year average of 89% open.

   November crude oil is set to expire Tuesday, but is posting a new contract 
high close of $110.00 per barrel. News of widening Houthi attacks on Saudi oil 
fields as well as Ukrainian hits on Russian energy infrastructures are spiking 
prices.

   This Thursday, USDA will issue its weekly export sales report. Highlights 
from last week's data saw combined seasonal net sales of 154,074 bales, which 
was below the 221,128 bales of last week. Cumulative sales for 2026/2027 have 
reached 45% of USDA's forecast versus a five-year average of 54% for this point 
in the marketing year.

   Next week, the Federal Reserve will meet to discuss and perhaps act on U.S. 
interest rates. Recent inflationary data has been running high, and the central 
bank may feel compelled to increase rates. That potential decision will be 
announced next Wednesday, Oct. 28.

   For Tuesday, close-in support for December cotton stands at 79.20 cents and 
78.85 cents, with resistance around 81.00 cents and 82.00 cents. Tuesday 
morning's estimated volume is 5,840 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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