DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          05/08 07:45

   Cotton Slouches, Awaits Trade News

   After the cotton market's big "bait-and-switch" move of Wednesday, its 
prices are quietly sideways Thursday morning. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   After the cotton market's big "bait-and-switch" move of Wednesday, its 
prices are quietly sideways Thursday morning. Traders will assess Thursday's 
export sales data as well as Friday's CFTC updates for certain insights. 
However, the major focus will fall on this weekend's inaugural start of the 
U.S./China trade negotiations. The talks run from May 9 to May 12 in 
Switzerland.

   USDA just issued its weekly export sales with the following numbers:

   "Net sales of Upland totaling 65,800 RB for 2024/2025 were down 39 percent 
from the previous week and 50 percent from the prior 4-week average.

   "Increases primarily for Vietnam (30,500 RB, including 900 RB switched from 
Malaysia, 500 RB switched from South Korea, 400 RB switched from Hong Kong, 200 
RB switched from Japan, and decreases of 100 RB), Turkey (16,200 RB, including 
decreases of 100 RB), India (9,300 RB), Indonesia (4,700 RB, including 500 RB 
switched from Vietnam and 200 RB switched from South Korea), and Bangladesh 
(3,000 RB, including decreases of 100 RB), were offset by reductions for 
Pakistan (4,100 RB), China (1,200 RB), Malaysia (900 RB), and Japan (300 RB).

   "Net sales of 37,400 RB for 2025/2026 reported for Mexico (30,700 RB), 
Indonesia (11,500 RB), Pakistan (2,200 RB), and Venezuela (1,800 RB), were 
offset by reductions for China (8,800 RB).

   "Exports of 394,900 RB were up 8 percent from the previous week and 16 
percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to 
Vietnam (117,300 RB), Pakistan (88,800 RB), Turkey (78,500 RB), Bangladesh 
(34,400 RB), and Indonesia (11,500 RB).

   "Net sales of Pima totaling 27,100 RB for 2024/2025 -- a marketing-year high 
-- were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.

   "Increases primarily for Vietnam (16,900 RB, including 100 RB switched from 
Hong Kong), India (6,200 RB), Pakistan (1,100 RB), Costa Rica (900 RB), and 
Peru (900 RB), were offset by reductions for Hong Kong (100 RB) and Turkey (100 
RB).

   "Exports of 14,400 RB were up noticeably from the previous week and up 75 
percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to 
Vietnam (6,100 RB), India (5,400 RB), Turkey (1,000 RB), Pakistan (900 RB), and 
Slovenia (200 RB)."

   This Friday, the CFTC will update its Commitment of Traders information. For 
several weeks now, the once record short managed-money funds have been paring 
their massive position. Last week, they stood at 26,000 plus or minus contracts 
net short. That report is out at 3:30 p.m. EDT.

   This Monday, USDA will issue its supply-demand update via the May WASDE. 
Despite the fact that official 2025 acres have yet to be announced, the 
tabulators will present both yield and crop amounts. That report is out at noon 
EDT.

   For Thursday, close-in chart support for July cotton stands at 66.45 cents 
and 65.50 cents, with resistance at 69.10 cents and 65.50 cents. Thursday 
morning's estimated volume is about 5,585 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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