DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          06/29 07:19

   Cotton Higher Before Tuesday's Acreage Report 

   The cotton market is somewhat higher Monday as traders prepare for Tuesday's 
big acres report

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is somewhat higher Monday as traders prepare for Tuesday's 
big acres report. Of course, there are other releases and news to be assessed 
during this abbreviated holiday week.

   Last Friday, the CFTC updated its Commitments of Traders data. The numbers 
showed managed-money funds had bought some 3,300 positions, upping their 
net-long carry to 38,502 contracts.

   Spot July remains in delivery and there were three notices tendered Monday 
by Term Commodities. That number brings the rough total to 530 contracts 
delivered. The delivery period runs through July 9.  

   Monday afternoon, USDA will issue its crop progress data. Last week saw the 
2026 crop at 92% planted with an overall good-to-excellent rating of 53%. That 
report is out at 4 p.m. EDT.   

   Tuesday, USDA will release its Planted Acres Report. The average industry 
estimate stands at 9.63 million acres against the previous March Intentions of 
9.60 million and versus the National Cotton Council's membership survey of 9.0 
million acres. The data will be out at noon eastern.

   Thursday, traders will see fresh export sales numbers from USDA. Last week, 
the current crop sales were 83,000 bales, off 53%, while shipments were some 
300,000 bales, up 20%.  

   With the observance of the Fourth of July, America's 250th, this Friday, the 
Labor Department will release its monthly jobs report on Thursday. Last month 
saw a job tally of 172,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%. Expectations for 
this week are 113,000 new non-farm jobs.

   The 6- to 10-day weather forecast (July 4-8) shows above-normal to 
much-above normal temperatures for much of the country. Rain-wise, Texas and 
the Southeast look to have normal chances, while the northern Delta should have 
slightly better opportunities. The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor indicates 
58% of the U.S. Cotton Belt is in drought. That reading is down from its peak 
reading of 98% drought just a few weeks ago.

   Chart support for December cotton stands at 75.50 cents and 74.95 cents, 
with resistance around 77.70 cents and 78.65 cents. Monday morning's estimated 
volume is 10,787 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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