DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          06/23 07:21

   Cotton Market Lower on Spec Selling

   The cotton market is materially lower as recent reports show that bullish 
speculators are liquidating, and crop aspects are improving. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is materially lower as recent reports show that bullish 
speculators are liquidating, and crop aspects are improving. In addition, the 
perception is the U.S.-Iran peace talks are going well, reducing the war 
anxiety among global investors.

   Monday's Commitment of Traders update from the CFTC showed that the 
managed-money funds were net sellers of 7,000 positions last week. Their action 
reduced their net-long carry to 35,136 contracts. The report had been delayed 
due to the federal observance of the Juneteenth holiday.

   USDA issued its weekly Crop Progress report Monday afternoon. The current 
planting pace has reached 92% complete, versus the five-year average of 94%. 
The crop at large was rated as 53% good to excellent equaling the previous 
evaluation.

   USDA will report export sales Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Last week saw 
current year net sales of 177,000, off 15%, with shipments of 251,000, down 16%.

   The U.S. dollar traded its highest level in more than a year this morning. 
Traders are positioning for a more hawkish Federal Reserve despite falling 
crude oil prices. The Fed funds futures are pricing in more than an 80% chance 
of a rate hike by September.

   On June 30, USDA will issue its Planted Acres report. Some analysts are 
expecting greater 2026 acres due to the spring rally to 88.00 cents. Also worth 
noting is that the March Intentions were higher than expected.

   Chart support for December cotton stands at 77.45 cents and 76.65 cents, 
with resistance around 79.10 cents and 80.40 cents. Tuesday morning's estimated 
volume is 17,305 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.