DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          07/02 07:52

   Cotton Softens Into Holiday Weekend

   The cotton market is easing lower Thursday after its triple-digit run-up on 
Wednesday. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is easing lower Thursday after its triple-digit run-up on 
Wednesday. The Ice futures were driven higher by concerns about the conditions 
in India, as well as fresh third-quarter buying from index funds. Today, 
traders will see fresh export sales and a new monthly jobs report.

   USDA just issued its weekly export sales report with the following numbers:

   "Net sales of Upland totaling 49,000 RB for 2025/2026 were down 42 percent 
from the previous week and 70 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases 
primarily for Vietnam (23,200 RB, including 1,600 RB switched from South Korea 
and decreases of 8,700 RB), India (7,400 RB, including 1,700 RB switched from 
Bangladesh), Pakistan (5,900 RB), China (5,500 RB, including decreases of 200 
RB), and Mexico (2,600 RB, including decreases of 100 RB), were offset by 
reductions for South Korea (1,200 RB), Indonesia (1,200 RB), and Nicaragua 
(1,100 RB). Net sales of 44,100 RB for 2026/2027 were primarily for Honduras 
(11,300 RB), Guatemala (9,300 RB), Turkey (6,800 RB), Mexico (5,200 RB), and 
Peru (4,100 RB). Exports of 218,800 RB were down 27 percent from the previous 
week and 22 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were 
primarily to Vietnam (57,300 RB), Turkey (49,800 RB), Pakistan (31,600 RB), 
Bangladesh (14,000 RB), and Mexico (12,000 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 700 
RB for 2025/2026--a marketing-year low--were down 84 percent from the previous 
week and 88 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for 
India (200 RB, including decreases of 900 RB), Bangladesh (200 RB, including 
decreases of 300 RB), South Korea (200 RB), Bahrain (100 RB), and Thailand (100 
RB). Net sales of 3,900 RB for 2026/2027 reported for India (2,300 RB) and 
Pakistan (1,700 RB), were offset by reductions for Egypt (100 RB). Exports of 
24,400 RB--a marketing-year high--were up noticeably from the previous week and 
up 56 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to 
India (12,400 RB), Vietnam (5,300 RB), China (1,300 RB), Djibouti (1,300 RB), 
and Egypt (1,000 RB)."

   The Labor Department released its monthly jobs report Thursday. Last month 
saw a job tally of 172,000 with an unemployment rate of 4.4%. Expectations for 
today's report called for 113,000 new non-farm jobs, but the actual number was 
a mere 57,000 new jobs created.

   Spot July remains in delivery. With that there were 16 deliveries Thursday, 
which appear to be re-tenders. To date, there have been 561 contracts 
delivered. The delivery period runs through July 9.  

   The market will be closed Friday in observance of America 250. Trading will 
resume on Monday at 8 a.m. EDT.

   Chart support for December cotton stands at 76.25 cents and 75.75 cents, 
with resistance around 78.50 cents and 79.00 cents. Thursday morning's 
estimated volume is 6,750 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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