DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          04/06 07:14

   Cotton Trades Up and Down With Crude 

   Overnight, the cotton market has traded both sides of its Thursday 
settlement, following the ebb and flow of the energy complex

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   Overnight, the cotton market has traded both sides of its Thursday 
settlement, following the ebb and flow of the energy complex. Monday morning 
there are conflicting reports as to whether an agreement has been struck 
between the U.S. and Iran regarding the fate of Strait of Hormuz. Traders will 
also be assessing the CFTC update, the Jobs data of last Friday, and this 
week's export sales numbers, along with the April WASDE.

   Last Friday morning, the Labor Department reported 170,000 new non-farms 
jobs were added during March. The guess ranged from 55,000 to 75,000 jobs. The 
slant is that more people working might bump apparel demand somewhat higher.

   Also last Friday afternoon, the CFTC released its updated Commitments of 
Traders data. Per last Tuesday's close, the managed-money funds had bought-in 
21,222 positions, thus reducing the overall net-short carry to 12,226 contracts.

   The Climate Prediction Center reported the nation's drought is worsening. 
Currently, some ninety-four (94%) of the U.S. cotton planted area is suffering 
from varying forms of drought.

   This Thursday the cotton market may receive a double whammy of sorts as USDA 
will issue a new round of export sales, as well as updating its supply-demand 
tables via the April WASDE. Estimates for both releases will be published 
Tuesday.

   Chart support for July cotton stands at 72.00 cents and 71.10 cents, with 
resistance around 74.00 cents and 74.50 cents. Monday morning's estimated 
volume is 13,824 contracts.

    

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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