DTN Closing Cotton            03/05 13:30

   Cotton Market Trades Lower Amid Iran Conflict, US Dollar

   Although the cotton market traded lower today, amid the Iran conflict and 
the safe-haven U.S. dollar, the ICE futures didn't venture down very far. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   Although the cotton market traded lower today, amid the Iran conflict and 
the safe-haven U.S. dollar, the ICE futures didn't venture down very far. Some 
analysts noted that, because of Iran, crop nutrients are becoming very 
expensive and scarce. In addition, the majority of U.S. production fields are 
rated extremely dry.

   This week's export sales data saw a weaker sales number, but a 
marketing-year-high shipment amount. Cumulative sales have reached 79% of the 
USDA forecast versus a five-year average of 92% for this point in the marketing 
year.

   Spot March cotton saw zero delivery notices today and with an open interest 
of two contracts, that will likely be the situation till the end. Thus far, 
some 600 delivery tenders have been issued. The delivery period runs through 
Monday, March 9.

   Friday, the Labor Department will issue new jobs data. Last month saw total 
non-farm payroll employment increase by 130,000 in January 2026, after changing 
little in 2025 (+15,000 per month on average). Job gains occurred in health 
care, social assistance, and construction, while federal government and 
financial activities lost jobs in January.

   Also on Friday, the CFTC will update its Commitment of Traders data. Last 
week, the managed-money funds had bought in some 14,140 positions, reducing 
their net-short carry to 65,368. For context, their record bearish position 
stands at 81,358 contracts.

   For Thursday, July closed at 66.00 cents, down 10 points; December 2026 
closed at 68.73 cents, plus 4 points; and March 2027 finished at 69.69 cents, 2 
points higher. Thursday's estimated volume was 63,570 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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