DTN Closing Livestock Comment 05/17 15:42

   : Cash Cattle Prices Jump $2 to $5 Higher 

   Feedlots' determination to advance this week's cash cattle market paid off 
as prices were $2.00 to $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average. 

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   It was an invigorating day for the cattle complex as cash prices, boxed beef 
prices and the futures contracts all closed higher. Meanwhile the lean hog 
market didn't see the same level of support as demand is in question. Hog 
prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.76 with a 
weighted average price of $88.57 on 2,669 head. July corn is down 4 1/2 cents 
per bushel and July soybean meal is up $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average 
is up 119.82 points.

   From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: Juen 
live cattle up $4.90, August live cattle up $4.93; May feeder cattle up $7.92, 
August feeder cattle up $8.95; June lean hogs down $1.88, July lean hogs down 
$1.40; July corn down $0.17, September corn down $0.18.

LIVE CATTLE:

   What a day, what a day, WHAT A DAY! It's one thing to see boxed beef prices 
close higher and come within $0.28 of taking out the choice top for 2024. It's 
one thing to see cash cattle prices trade $2.00 to $5.00 higher, and to see 
Northern dressed cattle sell for $300. And it's another thing to see the spot 
August live cattle contract break out of its sideways trading range and close 
at the highest price the market's seen since March. But to see all those 
factors come into play on one single day -- well that's the cowman's dream!

   June live cattle closed $2.02 higher at $181.05, August live cattle closed 
$1.67 higher at $179.05 and October live cattle closed $1.32 higher at $181.95. 
Today's close in the spot August contract leaves the market trading above the 
100-day moving average ($176.99), which is always a bullish signal. The cash 
cattle market waited until after the noon hour, but the time was worth the wait 
for feedlots. Northern dressed sales were marked at mostly $300, which is $5.00 
higher than last week's weighted average and Southern live cattle traded at 
mostly $186 which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average.

   Friday's slaughter is estimated at 102,000 head -- 18,000 head less than a 
week ago and 20,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is expected 
to be around 9,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 598,000 
head -- 24,000 head less than a week ago and 42,000 head less than a year ago.

   Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $3.30 ($313.45) and select up 
$0.89 ($297.40) with a movement of 99 loads (59.90 loads of choice, 12.98 loads 
of select, 12.95 loads of trim and 13.32 loads of ground beef).

   MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. We know packers have 
aggressively been procuring cattle in the cash market to try to get ahead of 
prices and their higher trend; at some point, the current leverage situation 
will shift.

FEEDER CATTLE:

   The feeder cattle complex thrived through Friday's end as the market was 
well supported in all facets. May feeders closed $1.87 higher at $246.72, 
August feeders closed $2.50 higher at $259.85 and September feeders closed 
$2.45 higher at $260.85. The spot August contract is currently at resistance, 
which traders will have to sort through next week. The market's 100-day moving 
average sits at $259.92, and the August contract closed $0.07 below that. The 
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week feeder 
steers traded $2.00 to $5.00 higher and steer calves sold steady to $5.00 
higher. Heifers traded $2.00 to $6.00 stronger. Slaughter cows sold steady to 
$4.00 higher and slaughter bulls traded $4.00 stronger. Feeder cattle supply 
over 600 pounds was 77%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for 5/16/2024: up $0.71, 
$243.04.

LEAN HOGS:

   The cattle complex sucked all the energy and support out of the livestock 
complex and left the lean hog market to round out the day lower. The lean hog 
market didn't have much going for it in Friday's trade as pork cutout values 
only closed mildly higher (mostly thanks the $5.77 jump in the belly) and cash 
prices were lower. June lean hogs closed $1.87 lower at $96.50, July lean hogs 
closed $1.57 lower at $100.05 and August lean hogs closed $1.32 lower at 
$99.47. Pork cutouts totaled 305.04 loads with 254.31 loads of pork cuts and 
50.72 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.58, $100.85. Friday's slaughter 
is estimated at 468,000 head -- 6,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head 
more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is estimated to be around 36,000 
head. The CME Lean Hog Index for 5/15/2024: up $0.37, $92.13.

   MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers rarely buy aggressively in Monday's cash 
market and given that summertime demand is in question, it's unlikely they will 
change their behavior next week.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached at shayle.stewart@dtn.com




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