|
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 05/03 15:53
Cash Cattle Trade $1.00 to $2.00 Higher
The cash cattle market scored again this week as sales were marked $1.00 to
$2.00 higher than last week's weighted average.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the cattle contracts closed
mostly higher amid stronger cash cattle sales. The lean hog complex didn't see
much support as traders were apprehensive of overly supporting the market ahead
of the weekend. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog
Report, down $2.40 with a weighted average price of $89.38 on 1,990 head. July
corn is up 1/2 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is up $7.30. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average is up 454.71 points.
From Friday-to-Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: June
live cattle down $1.90, August live cattle down $2.20; May feeder cattle down
$5.40, August feeder cattle down $5.80; June lean hogs down $3.52, July lean
hogs down $3.10; May corn up $0.07, July corn up $0.10.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex closed mostly higher although the spot June contract
did round out the day lower. But the market's biggest win of the week was the
USDA's announcement that no traces of H5N1 were found in the ground beef
samples they tested, and that the cash cattle market traded cattle higher again
this week. Southern live cattle waited to trade until Friday, but the wait was
worth the time as Southern cattle traded at mostly $184 which is $2.00 higher
than last week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly
$296 which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Packers
grudgingly paid more money for the cattle they needed as they don't want to be
in short supply heading into May. June live cattle closed $0.12 lower at
$176.67, August live cattle closed $0.62 higher at $174.57 and October live
cattle closed $0.67 higher at $178.05.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 119,000 head -- 6,000 head more than a
week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected
to be around 20,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 619,000
head -- 6,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.30 ($294.20) and select down
$0.33 ($287.65) with a movement of 97 loads (52.61 loads of choice, 16.01 loads
of select, 8.22 loads of trim and 20.05 loads of ground beef).
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Packers aren't going to willingly pay any more
for cattle than they absolutely have to.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The nearby feeder cattle contracts closed slightly lower but thankfully the
deferred months still closed higher. The market isn't lacking fundamental
support from buyers, its downfall has been the continued pressure from
lingering bird flu news and technical hesitancy from traders. But now with the
USDA confirming that none of the ground beef samples that they tested contained
traces of avian influenza, the market should be able to breathe a little
easier. I'm especially eager to see how the big summertime sales fare, which
are scheduled for the middle of June. May feeders closed $0.30 lower at
$243.30, August feeders are down $0.47 at $254.75 and September feeders closed
$0.20 lower at $255.77. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that
compared to last week and throughout the entire state feeder steers sold $3.00
to $6.00 lower and feeder heifers under 650 pounds sold steady. Heifers over
650 pounds sold $2.00 to $5.00 lower. Slaughter cows traded $2.00 higher and
slaughter bulls sold $2.00 higher as well. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds
was 83%. The CME feeder cattle index 5/2/2024: not available at this time.
LEAN HOGS:
Friday's trade was a flop for the lean hog complex as traders simply weren't
willing to support the market ahead of the weekend. Traders desperately wanting
to see promise that consumer demand would be sufficient over the summer and
even though this afternoon's carcass price closed higher, that wasn't enough to
soothe their concerns. Next Friday the market is scheduled to see the news
WASDE report which could unveil some of those questions for us. June lean hogs
closed $0.97 lower at $98.95, July lean hogs closed $0.67 lower at $102.85, and
August lean hogs closed $0.47 lower at $101.72. Pork cutouts totaled 262.08
loads with 234.47 loads of pork cuts and 27.62 loads of trim. Pork cutout
values: up $0.24, $98.12. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 468,000 head --
29,000 head more than a week ago and 13,000 head more than a year ago.
Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 19,000 head. The CME lean hog
index 5/1/2024: down $0.32, $90.92.
MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers won't likely support Monday's cash market
much until they gain a sense of what next week's demand is going to amount to.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached at shayle.stewart@dtn.com
(c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
Get your local Cash Bids emailed to you each morning from DTN – click here to sign up for DTN Snapshot.
|
|