With the U.S. planting season winding down and winter wheat harvest ramping up, USDA will take another look at crop estimates in light of improving weekly conditions in this month's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

USDA will release its latest WASDE and Crop Production reports at 11 a.m. CDT on Thursday, June 12.

CORN

Thus far for 2025, the corn growing season has arrived and advanced without many issues outside of planting delays in Kentucky, Indiana and Ohio that may warrant further monitoring as June progresses. As of June 8, the U.S. corn crop is 97% planted, exactly on pace with the five-year average completion for early June. Recent weather has also been friendly, pushing crop conditions higher over the past two weeks with 71% of the crop now in good-to-excellent condition. This strong start to the season has kept new-crop corn prices suppressed and near 2025 lows through May and early June.

For Thursday's report, USDA will revisit the U.S. balance sheets. Most of the focus this time around will return to old-crop supply and demand. It is unlikely USDA will alter the 2025-26 balance sheet drastically, preferring instead to wait for the findings of the June 30 acreage report to guide subsequent revisions. For 2024-25 corn usage, the change most are expecting is an increase in USDA's export forecast. As of the end of May, corn exports are 27% above this time in 2024, which would mathematically suggest a large revision higher is in order. But it is important to remember that, seasonally, corn sales usually begin to lose the competitive edge to Brazil, while shipments also tend to decline weekly through late summer. The average trade guess for 2024-25 ending stocks from the Dow Jones pre-report analyst survey is for 1.386 billion bushels (bb), down from 1.415 bb in May. All things equal, this would imply a roughly 30-million-bushel (mb) net increase in corn usage, which seems fair given the seasonal tendencies outlined above and the strong Brazilian crop that appears to be incoming.

Speaking of Brazilian corn, the safrinha crop will again take center stage on Thursday. As of late last week, the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA) reported harvest in top producing state Mato Grosso to be 2.7% complete, slightly behind pace. Early reports, however, are for total Brazilian corn production to settle higher than initially expected in early 2025. Recall that USDA increased their estimate from 126 million metric tons (mmt) to 130 mmt in the May WASDE. The average trade estimate for Thursday is to see another increase up to 131.5 mmt, which would be in line with recent reports from local crop reporting agencies in Brazil. In total, world ending stocks are expected to increase again in June, with the average analyst calling for just under a 1-mmt increase to 288.1 mmt, though estimates range from 285 mmt to 295 mmt. If the average estimate proves correct, that is still the lowest world corn carryout since 2015. However, increases to the estimates of stocks among major world exporters through 2025 thus far have alleviated supply concerns for summer 2025.

SOYBEANS

For soybeans, futures have turned sideways over the past couple months as the low initial acreage and stocks estimate for 2025-26 have kept a bullish floor beneath prices. However, the rocky relationship with China and nervousness regarding increased soybean acreage in the USDA report at the end of the June has kept an equally firm cap on rally attempts. So has a good overall start to the growing season for U.S. soybeans, with 68% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition as of June 8.

For Thursday's report, I again expect most of the focus to be on old-crop usage, which will of course in turn influence new-crop supplies in the form of beginning stocks. For soybean demand, there is no single category in which USDA is clearly lagging. An argument could be made for increased crush, but at this point with crush volumes through April running almost directly even with USDA expectations for the crop year, I expect it is likely to see USDA hold their estimate this time around. The same can be said for soybean exports, where the gap between shipment pace and the USDA goal in my mind isn't wide enough currently to warrant an increased estimate, especially considering the seasonal competition U.S. soybeans face currently from South America. All in all, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see USDA sit on their hands this month and leave the ending stocks estimate of 350 mb unchanged in June. The analysts surveyed by Dow Jones seem to agree as a whole with the average trade guess calling for 352 mb of soy ending stocks, a discrepancy that can be chalked up to rounding.

On the world balance sheet for soybeans, USDA will take this opportunity to fine tune South American production for 2025. The Dow Jones survey is torn over what to expect here, with Brazilian soybeans on average calling for a marginal increase to the 169 mmt estimate USDA has been running with for the past several months. In Argentina, the impacts of recent flooding in the province of Buenos Aires are thus far still somewhat unknown but has not elicited much reaction in terms of price. The range of analyst estimates for Thursday is from 48 mmt to 50 mmt, with the average coming in at 49 mmt, which would be unchanged from May. As a result of the above, only minor changes are expected to world soybean stocks, with analysts expecting between 122 and 124.2 mmt as compared to 123.2 mmt from USDA in May.

WHEAT

Of the three major crops discussed here, wheat may garner the most trader attention on Thursday. That is simply due to the time of year and that there is very early harvest underway in the U.S. and Northern Hemisphere for the 2025 winter wheat crop. Although the May 12 WASDE was a bearish surprise for the wheat market, futures have rallied since then. Adverse weather in China and Russia, as well as poor early U.S. spring wheat conditions were the catalysts. The rally has fallen on hard times early this week, however, with a sharp turn lower amid drought reduction and crop condition improvements for U.S. crops.

For Thursday, for old-crop 2024-25 wheat, the U.S. export category will garner attention as the crop year officially ended on May 31. And USDA's reported accumulated wheat shipments as of May 29 of 768.3 mb are well below the USDA goal of 820 mb. There is always some late accounting to expect, so it remains very possible that final exports will end up at 800 mb or above. But there is the potential for an increase in 2025-26 beginning stocks by way of less usage in 2024-25. For 2025-26 winter wheat production, the average analyst estimate is calling for 1.388 bb, which would be the highest production since 2016 despite lower acreage as compared to 2024. Hard red wheat production is expected to be estimated at 789 mb, soft red at 347 mb, and white wheat at 252 mb. Both the HRW and SRW estimates are expected to be increases from the May report. For 2025-26 stocks, analysts are expecting a small reduction to 916 mb on average, down from 923 mb in May. 2025-26 wheat export sales are off to a strong start, up 19% from 2024 as of the end of May with USDA estimating 800 mb of exports for the coming crop year. 2025-26 exports are a category to keep an eye on for Thursday.

On the world balance sheet, traders will most likely look first to Russia, where crop estimates have rebounded through the late spring of 2025 after the crop spent dormancy in generally poor condition. China's production will also be of interest, as good production in 2024 allowed for a sharp decrease in wheat exports through the 2024-25 crop year, driven in part by less available wheat on the market from Russia. Northern China has been very dry through the past two months. The average analyst estimate for Thursday is calling for a reduction in 2025-26 world wheat stocks from 265.7 mmt to 265.1 mmt.

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Join us for DTN's webinar at 12:30 p.m. CDT on Thursday, June 12, as we discuss USDA's new estimates in light of recent market events. Questions are welcome, and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Thursday's June WASDE report webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….

Rhett Montgomery can be reached at rhett.montgomery@dtn.com

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