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DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/11 10:57
Soybean Futures Higher at Midday; Wheat Mixed; Corn Flat-Lower
Corn futures are flat to a penny lower at midday Wednesday; soybean futures
are 1 to 2 cents higher; wheat futures are narrowly mixed.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are flat to a penny lower at midday Wednesday; soybean futures
are 1 to 2 cents higher; wheat futures are narrowly mixed. The U.S. stock
market is firmer with the S&P 10 points higher. The U.S. Dollar Index is 45
points lower. The interest rate products are firmer. Energy trade is mixed with
crude 1.35 higher and natural gas .02 lower. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs
leading. Precious metals are mixed with gold up 19.00.
CORN:
Corn futures are flat to a penny lower at midday with firmer spread action
as we pull back from the early test of resistance and stay rangebound ahead of
the WASDE report Thursday. On the WASDE report, trade is looking for old-crop
carryout at 1.389 billion bushels (bb) versus 1.415 bb last month; new crop at
1.802 bb versus 1.800 bb last month with yield unchanged; and larger South
American production. The weekly ethanol report showed production up another
15,000 barrels per day to near record levels with stocks off by 700,000 barrels
on the week. Warmer weather is expected for most through midweek with good
short-term rain coverage continuing. Weekly export sales are expected to be in
the 500,000 metric ton (mt) to 700,000 mt range Thursday. Basis continues to
hold the recent range. On the July chart, the 20-day moving average at $4.46
3/4 is resistance with the lower Bollinger Band at $4.30 as support.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with mixed product action
as we stay near support heading toward the report Thursday. Meal is 1.00 to
2.00 lower and oil is 40 to 50 points higher. On the WASDE report, trade is
looking for 355 million bushels (mb) of old-crop carryout versus 350 mb last
month; new crop at 304 mb versus 295 mb; and South American production up
slightly. Planting should be pretty well wrapped up with the warm stretch
through midweek, except for double crop. Basis should remain sideways in the
short-term. Weekly export sales are expected to be in the 200,000 mt to 350,000
mt range. On the July chart, support is the 20-day moving average at $10.54,
which we are just above, with Upper Bollinger Band at $10.74 the next round of
resistance.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are narrowly mixed with early gains fading from harvest
pressure while the cheaper dollar continues to support trade as we chop along
range-bound fashion. The WASDE report is expected to show wheat stocks at 844
mb versus 841 mb last month; new crop at 919 mb versus 923 mb last month; total
production at 1.925 bb, up slightly from last month. The hard red wheat areas
should start to see harvest push further, but rains could keep early progress a
bit slower with the warmer temps helping to push maturity again. Spring wheat
should continue to catch up as we warm back up after a slow start as well.
MATIF wheat is narrowly mixed with little fresh Black Sea news. Weekly export
sales are expected to be in the 300,000 mt to 450,000 mt range. On the KC July
chart, support is the 20-day moving average at $5.33,, which we are right below
at midday, with the Lower Bollinger Band at $5.17 the next round down.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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