DTN Closing Grain Comments    04/23 13:59

   Wheat Prices End Higher a Fourth Day; Row Crops Follow With Small Gains 

   July Chicago wheat closed up 15 1/4 cents at a new two-month high as traders 
continued to show concerns about adverse weather in a few of the world's wheat 
regions. December corn and November soybeans posted small gains Tuesday with 
light support from a dry forecast for central Brazil and a wet forecast for 
Argentina.

Todd Hultman
DTN Lead Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   July corn closed up 2 3/4 cents and December corn was up 2 1/4 cents. July 
soybeans closed up 5 1/2 cents and November soybeans were up 2 1/4 cents. July 
KC wheat closed up 11 3/4 cents, July Chicago wheat was up 15 1/4 cents and 
July Minneapolis wheat was up 9 1/2 cents.

   The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.42 at 105.66. The Dow Jones Industrial 
Average is up 279.69 points at 38,519.67. June gold is down $3.90 at $2,342.50, 
May silver is up $0.16 at $27.41 and May copper is down $0.0410. June crude oil 
is up $1.45 at $83.35, June ultra-low sulfur diesel is up $0.0182, June RBOB 
gasoline is up $0.0389 and June natural gas is up $0.019.

CORN:

   December corn ended up 2 1/4 cents at $4.74 3/4 Tuesday, a quiet day of 
trading that ended with a third higher session. In central Brazil, the forecast 
has turned dry and crops are now facing the dry season. July corn on the 
Bovespa exchange is trading modestly higher Tuesday afternoon, but is still not 
showing much concern from traders. In Argentina, the corn harvest has been 
slowed by wet conditions and the forecast remains wet this week.

   Here in the U.S., temperatures are turning warmer this week, more favorable 
for widespread planting. However, a wide coverage of moderate to heavy rain 
amounts across the Corn Belt are expected to start Thursday and will slow 
planting efforts later this week into early next week. Late Monday, USDA said 
12% of the corn crop was planted, above the five-year average of 10% for this 
time of year. Iowa is 13% planted and Illinois is at 11%.

   On the demand side, Monday's report of export inspections showed another 
active week for corn at 63.9 million bushels (mb) inspected last week. Last 
week's ethanol production dropped to 983,000 barrels per day (bpd), but 
shouldn't stay down long as USDA estimated corn's processing value at $5.89 in 
Iowa as of April 19, well above current cash prices. With planting about to 
pick up in the U.S, December corn remains in a sideways trend. DTN's National 
Corn Index was priced at $4.23 Monday evening, 17 cents below the May futures.

SOYBEANS:

   November soybeans ended up 2 1/4 cents at $11.74 Tuesday, staying contained 
below its 20-day average after two days of higher trading. Soybeans continue to 
encounter bearish pressure from the arrival of soybean harvests in South 
America. Brazil's harvest is roughly 87% complete but will have to deal with 
rain in southern Brazil this week. Argentina's harvest is just starting to pick 
up at roughly 16% complete, but is much slower than usual, hampered by wet 
conditions and another forecast for more rain this week.  

   Late Monday, USDA said 8% of U.S. soybeans were planted as of Sunday, up 
from the five-year average of 4% for this time of year. Illinois is 11% planted 
and Iowa is at 8%. Warmer temperatures will help planting activity expand this 
week until moderate to heavy rains arrive across much of the Midwest, starting 
Thursday and lasting into next week. Overall, there is plenty of time for 
planting to continue and the warmer temperatures will help.

   Among soy products, July soybean meal prices have held firm since late 
February and were up $1.30 at $346.10. July soybean oil is still searching for 
support in 2024 and was up 0.22 cent at 45.88 cents Tuesday. Based on July 
futures prices, the soybean crush premium has been stable in early 2024 and 
ended at $1.4 a bushel Tuesday. With Brazil and Argentina both harvesting 
soybeans, the trend for November soybeans remains sideways with resistance near 
$12.04. DTN's National Soybean Index was priced at $11.08 Monday evening, 53 
cents below the May futures.

WHEAT:

   July KC wheat closed up 11 3/4 cents at $6.14 1/4, another new two-month 
high and above the 100-day average at $6.04 for the first time since early 
August. Cold and wet weather in Europe, dry conditions in eastern Ukraine, 
southwestern Russia and at the western end of the Canadian Prairies have given 
wheat prices a lift. Prices were also supported by news late last week that 
India's wheat stocks in government warehouses were at a 16-year low on April 1. 
Wheat prices are well known for dashing bullish hopes and it is still early in 
the new winter wheat season, but we also have to say this is the most 
potentially bullish fundamental news wheat has had in several months. 

   Late Monday, USDA said 50% of the winter wheat crop was rated good to 
excellent, down from 55% a week ago. Twenty-six percent of crops in Kansas and 
18% of crops in Washington were rated poor to very poor, needing more moisture. 
Stripe rust has also been detected in some Kansas and Oklahoma counties. The 
southwestern U.S. Plains will get some benefit from rain in the seven-day 
forecast and more is expected the following week. This week's warmer 
temperatures will also help crop development.

   USDA also said 15% of the spring wheat crop was planted as of Sunday, up 
from the five-year average of 10% for this time of year. The northwestern 
Plains could use more rain and there are better chances in the 6- to 14-day 
period. Warmer temperatures the next two weeks will also be helpful for 
planting progress. July Minneapolis wheat closed up 9 1/2 cents at $6.72 1/4. 
After several months of wheat prices under bearish pressure, the price trends 
are now up for the July contracts of KC and Chicago wheat and sideways for July 
Minneapolis wheat. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $5.49 Monday, up from the 
lowest price in three years. DTN's National HRS Index closed at $6.32.

   Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com

   Follow him on social platform X @ToddHultman1




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