DTN Early Word Grains         04/24 05:45

   Grain Markets Mixed but Mostly Lower, Staging Small Correction 

   May corn is down 1/2 cent per bushel, July soybeans are down 1 cent, July KC 
wheat is down 2 1/2 cents, July Chicago wheat is down 4 1/4 cents and July 
Minneapolis wheat is down 3 cents. 

Kent Beadle, DTN Contributing Analyst

   EARLY MORNING GLOBEX NET CHANGES: May corn is down 1/2 cent per bushel, July 
soybeans are down 1 cent, July KC wheat is down 2 1/2 cents, July Chicago wheat 
is down 4 1/4 cents and July Minneapolis wheat is down 3 cents.

   CME GLOBEX RECAP: World equity markets are mostly higher again Wednesday 
morning, catching up to a strong close in U.S. markets on Tuesday. Interest 
rates were stable and reported earnings at many U.S. companies are beating 
expectations. Concerns still exist regarding the impact of high interest rates 
on the economy and the likelihood of rates remaining higher for longer. 
Economic data on Tuesday was mixed, with the flash PMIs from S&P both weaker 
than expectations. The services PMI was 50.9 and the manufacturing PMI was 
49.9, with expectations that both numbers would be 52.0. New home sales were 
stronger than anticipated, at 693,000 homes compared to expectations at 669,000 
homes. Durable goods will be released Wednesday morning.

   OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes Tuesday showed the Dow Jones Industrial 
Average up 263.71 at 38,503.69 and the S&P 500 up 59.95 at 5,070.55, The 
10-Year Treasury yield ended at 4.60%. Early Wednesday, the June Dow Jones 
Futures are down 11 points. European markets are higher with the spot futures 
of London's FTSE 100 trading up 0.55%, spot futures of Germany's DAX is trading 
up 0.19% and the spot futures of France's CAC 40 Index up 0.37%. Asian markets 
are higher with Japan's Nikkei 225 Index up 2.42% and China's Shanghai 
Composite Index up 0.76%.

   The June Euro is down 0.001 at 1.071 and the June U.S. Dollar Index is up 
0.165 at 105.670. The June 30-Year T-Bond is down 16/32nds, while June gold is 
down $10.90 at $2,331.20 and June crude oil is down $0.45 at $82.91. On China's 
Dalian Exchange, July corn was up 0.12% while July soybeans were down 0.06%, 
September soybean meal was up 0.51% and July Malaysian Palm Oil was trading 
down 0.71%.

   BULL                                     BEAR
   Chicago and KC wheat futures posted      Some selling from U.S. farmers has
   their highest daily closes since         been noted on this rally, although
1) early February, with the KC wheat     1) U.S. average basis levels for corn
   contract closing above the 100-day       and soybeans were steady Tuesday.
   moving average.

   The value of the Brazilian real is       Rainfall forecast for Iowa this
   rebounding while Brazilian soybean       weekend should significantly help
2) basis levels continue to move higher  2) the soil moisture deficits in that
   making Brazilian soybeans more           state.
   expensive.

   Forecasts for rainfall in Brazil for     Planting progress has been active
   the Safrinha corn crop have turned       in much of the belt this week,
3) dry as temperatures there are         3) ahead of the rains that are
   trending above normal.                   forecast to begin on Friday.



   MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

   CORN:

   Corn is lower as futures approach the highest levels seen since the spike 
higher on the day of the acreage and stocks report on February 28. That 
resistance is at $4.48 in May corn and at $4.81 in December corn. Support has 
been driven in part by short covering from the large speculative short position 
as open interest has fallen on this rally. Support may also be coming from the 
perception that planting progress is going to slow significantly beginning on 
Friday when a large weather system will bring 1-3 inches of rain to much of the 
heart of the Corn Belt. Ahead of that system, planters have been getting a good 
workout with strong progress noted in many areas.

   Weekly ethanol production will be released later on Wednesday, with traders 
looking to see if production rebounds after a sharp drop in the previous report.

   SOYBEANS:

   Soybeans are also lower, as both palm oil futures and soybean oil futures 
are pressuring soybeans. The rally in soybeans combined with lower soybean oil 
has pressured processing margins slightly this week. Soybean meal has offset 
the lower soybean oil to some extent, with meal prices near the highest levels 
seen since early February. Some support has been seen from a rebound in the 
Brazilian real this week, as well as continued firm Brazilian soybean basis 
levels.

   WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are lower and are trying to correct a very large four-day 
rally that has been driven by world weather concerns, as well as renewed 
attacks by Russia on Ukrainian port facilities. There have been some downgrades 
in production estimates in both Ukraine and Russia due to recent heat and 
dryness in the Black Sea growing region. Additionally, this week's declines in 
U.S. crop condition ratings, down 5 percentage points, suggest reasons for 
concern about the U.S. HRW crop. There is rainfall in the extended forecast, 
but rains have been forecast before and results have been disappointing.

              DTN Cash   Change From    National      Contract   Change from
Commodity     Index      Prev Day       Avg. Basis    Month      Prev Day
Corn:         $4.27      $0.04          -$0.16        May        $0.006
Soybeans:     $11.15     $0.07          -$0.53        May        $0.000
SRW Wheat:    $5.33      $0.15          -$0.52        May        $0.001
HRW Wheat:    $5.60      $0.11          -$0.48        May        -$0.002
HRS Wheat:    $6.43      $0.11          -$0.24        May        $0.001

   Kent Beadle can be reached at kentbeadle@gmail.com




(c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.