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10/3 - Wht & corn closed mixed today after being up 5-15c most of the morning. Wht & corn down 70- 80c for the wk. The rescue plan passed, now waiting for the Pres to sign it. This drop related to World financial meltdown. None of us know what is going to happen, but all markets are a vaccuum now. Trend definately down with plenty of foreign cheap sellers and capital tightening up. US wheat xport pace only 75% of last years pace, not good. Many of these large financial companies have commodity index funds, and if they liquidate, will drive markets down further. All world grain prices are dropping in unison. SW mkt down to 6.20 PNW with nothing trading. Since Aug 21 closes, wht futs are down $2.80/bu and SWW is down $2.20/bu. Corn futs are down 80c/bu same time frame. Lots of wheat trading into Africa, Middle East, and Paki, but most coming from big crops in Europe, Black Sea, and FSU Countries with cheaper Ocean frgt vs. US. Arg and Aussie wht crops are definately shrinking with no rain materializing. Hate to say it, but time to do nothing and close your eyes for 60-90 days.
PNW SWW crop has a high protein problem ave +11% pro. Pacific Rim buyers want max 10.5% or less pro. Ocean frgt rates have dropped 30% in past 10 days a possitive sign, but PNW frgt rates still too high to sell Sw to Egypt, Middle East, and Paki, who will take this high pro sw. In past 60 days Paki has bot 1.7 mil MT and only have 800,000 MT left to buy. We need PL 480 terms to compete into Paki, but Paki not on best political terms right now. Protein problems will keep SW price flat for a while & doubt sw goes up much next 30days but should stabilize.
Bottom line is financial melt down dragging prices down and the World has 2 bil more bu wht this year to sell will keep lid on prices. Corn crop still big, and I wouldn't count on freeze to kill it. Index Funds long 800 mil bu of wheat futs, could also drag price down if they forced to sell. Expect legislation by next year to limit spec trading in futures. Export picture has been slow for US grains. Futures limits are 60c on wht and 30c YC. Ethanol demand for 4-5 bil bu YC this year will be a driver keeping all grain prices higher for years to come.
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