To read our futures brokers daily market opinions, click on Daily Commentary Tab on the left. Without major crop problems around the world this next year, hard to believe there is major upside price movement for US wheats thru the Fall. Sell any 30c rallies. Scroll down on home page to look at electronic futures daytime and starting again at 4 PM PST. Elevator hours will be 8am-5pm Monday thru Friday. Office hrs will be 7am-4:30pm Mon-Fri.
Nov. 6 - Wht futs closed 10-16c lower w/ corn 9c lower. Corn harvest is moving along this week and at least into early next as the weather pattern has broken and brought prices down. Ags still moving opposite the dollar. New fund money is in the 1st of the month. Wht is now 50-55c off Fridays highs on 10/23, nxt support down 9-14c and shld hold, otherwise another 40c drop is potentially in the cards. Corn harvest delays still giving market some upside. Last wks US exports poor at 12.8 mb with only 2.5 mb Sw. Iraq bot 10 mb Feb wht with 3.6 mb PNW HRW 12% pro. Wet weather and direction of $ will determine where we go this wk. Wht futs are still up 30-40c from Oct9 crop report close and were up a total 80c-$1/bu early session past Fri. This run up is due to worries about getting the corn crop harvested. Rain everywhere in Midwest and corn harvest now est only 25% done, expect volatile market til it gets 80% harvested. SRW approx 40% planted vs 85% ave past 3 yrs. Should keep selling both OC and NC wht and corn on the next run. SW hit $5/bu Portland Fri for Oct and back to 4.75/bu today. Index Funds will start selling some grain longs starting Oct 19 to get into compliance with new spec rules. Not much a factor. US wht exports still at sluggish pace and approx 60% of LY pace. Reduction in US corn crop not known with the cold temps and late harvest. Wht will get to enjoy the ride up but should be sold on this rally.. Oct 9 crop report was bearish for wht prices. Record Corn yield was forecast at 164.2 bpa wld put US over 13 bb crop, but that has now changed due to adverse weather. DNS had 4c ldp on Tues 10/6. All crop reports this year indicating plenty of wheat to go around for world demand. Aussie rains all but assure 22-23 MMT wheat production which is best crop in 5 yrs for them. White Club at $8.50/bu is most expensive wheat in the World right now, we may run out this Spring, but it should still be sold. Markets will be volatile next couple months with weather scares. Financial meltdown has slowed world trade by 35% volume.. in everything.
NC 2010- Wheat prices had big October rally and went up almost $1/bu. We traded Pasco prices of $5/bu for SW, $6.00 for HRW, & $6.55 for DNS. Since Oct 23, we dropped 60-70c again. Be ready to sell the next rally if prices repeat Oct23 highs. World wheat crops in pretty good shape so far for next years crops. Same goes for NC10 corn as it rallied $1/bu in Oct and is now down 40c/bu since Oct 23 highs. We have a year to go, and expect some volatility ahead with more rallies. With new rules for Spec Fund & Index Fund position limits, we don't expect the big gyratons we have seen the past 2 years. I'm thinking that any 50c move back up is still in the cards. I think realistic deld Pasco price objectives of $5/bu for SW, $5.75/bu for HRW, and $6.50/bu for DNS will be reached over the next 12 months. Mother Nature will mess with some areas in the World. Corn prices for 2010 are worth looking at again as futures have reached $4/bu again. Figure out what grain prices are profitable for you before selling and let us know what you want us to do. CRC crop insurance was lowered to $5.50/bu for 2010, but it still helps protect you on the downside. Weather markets ahead on corn and soybeans will more than likely cause some rallies on dryness, wetness, and freeze issues. World economy still needs to improve to get goods moving again. DF
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Saturday will again be generally dry, except for a few very light showers in the Great Lakes. The next chance for Midwest rain is Sunday into Monday, but with very light amounts of less than one-quarter inch. » More DTN Weather Commentary