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To read our futures brokers daily market opinions, click on Daily Commentary Tab on the left. Without major crop problems around the world this next year, hard to believe there is major upside price movement for US wheats. Sell the 30c rallies. Bear with me as trying set better format for prices. scroll down on home page to look at electronic futures daytime and starting again at 4 PM PST. Df
Jly 2- Tired of writing that wht futs down 6-11c today. Corn futs down 11c. We at wht support lvls but corn approx 20c above support with new acreage forecast. 6/30 Crop report a bust with corn acres at 87 mil vs 84 mil ac trade guess. Corn futs were down 54c for the wk and wht futs were down 34-47c for this wk. Guess the Spring rains didn't reduce acreage for corn. Read this is most acres planted to corn since 1946, so 12 bil bu crop again is possible. Spring wht acres at 13.7 mil acres vs 13.1 mil trade guess still smaller than last years 14.1 mil ac planed. Lots of uncertainty and slow exports around the world. Congressional hearings on Spec limits for futures trading underway. Right now index Funds exempt from limits, but that might change? If limits mandated, could be major selloff in all futures prices on all commodities. Can't see Congress getting anything done before Summer Recess? SW market quiet at 5.65 PNW. Egypt buying French and Russian wht at 75c/bu cheaper than our SW. HRW harvesting smaller crop and lower protein in Tex,Ok, & Kans. DNS country has plenty of moisture in US. Tough to predict market right now, but it's probably a buy. Don't see world production getting too beat up now. Wht futs have lost $1.60-1.70/bu since 6/2 highs. Corn futs are down $1.05 from June2 highs. Spec Funds moving the market and have sold 270 mil bu wht futs since Jun2. Talk of US ethanol mandate to 15% by 2015 from Obama administration should help corn price in a couple of years. The grain market is a financial market and when the $USD goes up, grain prices go down. Club wheat reached $2/bu prem for new crop, but now $1.50 prem. Grain following the lead of financials and oil prices. Austral talking good crop nxt yr, while Canada says theirs will be down. Ethanol sector operating at 75-80% of capacity and have positive margins again. Ocean frgt values stabilized and climbing again. Big Wht crops in Europe, Black Sea, FSU Countries, Aussie, and Cdn will dominate export demand. Wht prices will be under pressure with harvest around the corner.
Bottom line is financial melt down dragging prices down and the World has 2 bil more bu wht this past year to sell, will keep lid on prices. Corn crop still big and ethanol plants struggling to make a profit. Futures limits are 60c on wht and 30c YC. Ethanol demand for 4 bil bu YC this year helps to keep prices higher even for wheat than the past 10 years.
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